In Mideast and at NATO, Trump models norm-busting diplomacy
To achieve a historic agreement in 2015 limiting the Iranian nuclear program, President Barack Obama accepted two years of difficult negotiations with Tehran as the diplomatic price to pay to conclude an agreement.
Not so Donald Trump.
When Iranian negotiators fell this month under maximum terms that President Trump demanded Tehran to guarantee that his nuclear program would never deliver a bomb – and especially after Israel began an air war against Iran – an impatient president sent the army.
Why we wrote this
During his second term, and in particular in the past two weeks, President Donald Trump has unleashed a diplomatic style on the friend and the diplomatic style which throws all the traditional diplomacy standards in favor of orders, threats and strength shows.
By saying that he was acting in the interest of peace and headed for a broader war in the Middle East, Mr. Trump sent bombers to attack three Iranian nuclear sites, including Ford-Ford installations located at the bottom of a mountain.
It was the diplomacy of the 30,000 pound bunker bomb.
During his second mandate, and in particular in the past two weeks, President Trump has sparked a diplomatic style that throws all the traditional diplomacy standards – dialogue, negotiation, strengthening confidence and patience – in favor of commandments, threats and strength shows.
And a large part of the development of policies and the announcement is carried out in the United States of social media.
“It is diplomacy by tweet and by Fiat,” explains Charles Kupchan, a principal researcher in international affairs at the Foreign Relations Council in Washington.
It is also a style that aims to keep a friend and an enemy guess, and “our closest allies, like those in Europe, unbalanced,” says Dr. Kupchan.
Time on NATO
This approach was exposed at the top of NATO in The Hague on Wednesday.
In a herd with Air Force journalists on Tuesday, the president questioned the American commitment to the principle of mutual defense of the Alliance, devoted in article 5 of the NATO Charter. “Depends on your definition; there are many definitions of article 5,” said Trump.
But at a press conference at the end of the summit on Wednesday, President Mercurial said he had a new appreciation for NATO.
He said he had come here “because I had to do it”, but who lets “feel differently. It is not a scam, and we are here to help them protect their country.”
It is a unique diplomatic style in American history, says Dr. Kupchan, but which reflects the history of Mr. Trump as a regular authoritarian business man.
“He is used to making decisions and telling people around him what to do and they do it,” he said.
In his first mandate, Trump was retained by certain experienced advisers and members of the cabinet who controlled his whims, said Dr. Kupchan. But in his second mandate, the president was released to apply his management style to diplomacy and global affairs.
This week, the war simmering between Iran and Israel was the framework of Trump Diplomacy 2.0 – and he obtained mixed results.
On Monday evening, the president announced a ceasefire on his social media channel, even surprising some of his closest aid. Israel and Iran both accepted a “full and total ceasefire”, he said on his social media channel-even if none of the belligerents had announced such an agreement.
Rage on the southern lawn
But Tuesday morning, when the ceasefire showed signs of detangling, an impatient president exploded in rage in Iran and Israel.
While leaving for the NATO summit, he confirmed to journalists gathered on the southern lawn of the White House that Iran had broken the ceasefire he had declared, adding: “But Israel raped it too.”
Advocating his dissatisfaction, he then added: “We essentially have two countries that have fought for so long and so hard that they do not know what the [expletive] They do. It was hardly traditional traditional diplomatic.
In a few hours, Israel and Iran announced their membership in the ceasefire. And once again, Trump gathered journalists for an ad, on board the Air Force One.
“Now we are going to NATO, and we will have a new set of problems,” Trump said. “We are going to solve a new set of problems.”
But if the president’s rapid and flashless diplomatic approach is really to be solved, it remains to be seen, some experts in foreign policy.
“Trump wants fast agreements and fast results, and he wants to scream these capital networks agreements on social networks,” said Julianne Smith, former US NATO ambassador and president of Clarion Strategies, a Washington consulting company. “But the truth is that diplomacy requires patience, the establishment of relationships and a two-way street,” she adds, “we will see if the very different approach of Trump gives lasting results.”
Another characteristic of the president’s diplomatic approach is his frequent reference of American power and his unilateral request, said ambassador Smith. “His preference is a language of power and strength, and he believes that we are at a time of great powers affirming their spheres of influence.”
Noting the presence of Mr. Trump at the summit, she adds: “In reality, he has little utility for the type of multilateralism that the UN, the European Union or even NATO represent.”
“The hard power is back in vogue”
A debate on questions analysts is whether the diplomacy that Mr. Trump is looking for is a boost closely linked to his personality, or if global trends will do, at least to some extent, the new standard.
“Donald Trump is sui generis; it is a reality TV star who makes all his subject 24/7,” explains Dr. Kupchan. But on the other hand, he says, there are forces at work that influence President Trump and will influence the course of the upcoming presidencies.
“A factor is that difficult power is back in vogue, and it doesn’t matter whether Trump, Biden or Obama in the oval office,” he said. “It is a change that is not going to disappear.”
Another factor at work is a drop in deep multilateralism that has settled – and for which the United States was the chief architect – after the Second World War, he said.
“Trump’s instincts in many respects are more in line with the 19th century world” – think of protectionism with a suspicion of gunboat diplomacy – which they “resonate more with the great 19th century strategy than with the great strategy of the post -Pearl port”, explains Dr. Kupchan. “The problem is that the vision of Fortress America and the interior orientation of the world of the 19th century are not possible today.”
Thus, Mr. Trump found himself at the top of one of the multilateral institutions of the last century – if barely 24 hours.
To accommodate an impatient American president, NATO summit planners made sure that the event would be short and sweet – and also without spoilers as possible.
There were even signs that other world leaders adapt not only to Mr. Trump’s diplomatic style, but by adopting it.
In a private message that the president later published so that the world could see it, the secretary general of NATO, Marke Rutte, praised Mr. Trump’s impact on the Alliance in the style of Trump – until the use of capital letters.
“Donald”, he wrote, “you will realize something that no American president for decades could be done. … Europe will pay importantly, as they should, and it will be your victory.”
