Private Payrolls Rise by 54,000 in August, Missing Expectations
The employment of the private sector increased by 54,000 jobs in August, according to the ADP payroll processor, not the expectations of economists for 75,000 new positions and marking a strong deceleration compared to the rhythm of the previous month.
The August figure represents a significant cooling of the revised total of 106,000 jobs in July, which suggests that employers become more cautious about hiring in the middle of economic uncertainty. The ADP National Employment Report, published on Wednesday, follows data on the payroll of more than 26 million private sector workers.
The annual wage growth was held stable at 4.4% for workers who stayed in their work, while those who have changed positions saw wages increase by 7.1% in annual shift.
The leisure and hotel sector dominated job creation, adding 50,000 jobs in August. Construction contributed to 16,000 other jobs to the monthly count. However, the manufacturing has shaken up the trend, losing 7,000 jobs during the month.
By the size of the company, medium -sized companies have led hiring with 25,000 new jobs, followed by large establishments of 18,000 and small businesses at 12,000.
The weakest to the weakest than expected comes when managers of the federal reserve are preparing for their next political meeting, where they should largely reduce interest rates. Data on the job market have become a key objective for decision -makers because they weigh the pace and extent of the potential rate reductions.
The ADP stresses that its report is not conceived as a forecast of official government data from the government, a clarification provided by the company after revising its methodology several years ago to position the report as an independent data point. Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to publish its August employment report, which will include both a private and government job as well as the unemployment rate.
The modest job gains in August continue a model of moderation of the labor market which started earlier this year. While employers still hire, the pace has slowed considerably the robust growth observed at the end of 2024 and at the beginning of 2025.
Trump administration policies aimed at border security and a reduction in the number of illegal foreigners living in the United States have probably reduced labor supply and the number of jobs to be added each month to maintain full employment. Alexander Bick, an economist at the Fed of St. Louis, recently estimated that the economy was to add only 32,000 to 82,000 jobs to prevent unemployment from the increase, decreasing considerably compared to a previous estimate of 150,000 based on trends in the pre-trump population.
“Payroll growth has slowed down in 2025, reflecting both lower demand and a drop in labor supply. Estimates of the pace of employment growth have decreased with the recent drop in immigration and the participation of the lower workforce. Estimates in the number of deaths are currently in the range of 30,000 to 80,000 jobs per month, compared to 100,000 estimates in previous years, “said St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, in a recent speech.
The ADP report covers nearly 14.8 million individual remuneration observations and is produced in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The data reflect employment during the week which includes the 12th of the month, in accordance with the calendar used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for its monthly job report.
