How a one-on-one matchup would change the NYC mayoral race: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of Political officeA newsletter that brings you the latest report and analysis of the NBC News Policy team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign campaign.
In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki breaks down new polls in the race for the mayor of New York. In addition, we examine a rare example of the white house of President Donald Trump breaking with Israel.
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– Adam Wollner
How a tête-à-tête match would change the New York mayor race
Steve Kornacki analysis
Zohran Mamdani is benchmark – but only in very specific conditions which are unlikely to appear before the elections of the Mayor of New York in November.
It is to remember from a survey of the New York Times / Siena which finds a wide range of the city’s electorate always reluctant to align behind Mamdani, the Democratic candidate and a Democratic socialist.
While things arise now, the opposition to Mamdani is divided between three politically weakened alternatives. The survey puts Mamdani’s support at 46%, almost doubling its nearest enemy, former governor Andrew Cuomo, who is 24%. The Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is third with 15%, the outgoing mayor Eric Adams died by 9%.
But when a theoretical competition in head between Mamdani and Cuomo was tested, the image suddenly changed, with Mamdani to come from only 4 points, 48% to 44%. In comparison, Mamdani easily beat Adams in an individual test, 55% to 36%. A Sliwa-Mamdani competition was not questioned.
The discovery will add more fuel to the thrust of anti-madani leaders to consolidate behind Cuomo and push Adams and Sliwa out of the race. But none of them has shown any receptivity to the idea. And as long as they remain on site, the survey clearly shows it, Mamdani is on a sliding path to Gracie Mansion.
But if, in one way or another, a Cuomo-Mamdani race should develop, the Nyt / Siena survey points important vulnerabilities for Mamdani.
New York voters consider crime as the most important question and only 30% say that Mamdani is the best of all candidates to remedy it. Mamdani’s call also takes care of younger and more educated voters. In a tête-à-tête match, Cuomo crushes her among those without four-year university degrees and beats him with black voters. And support for Mamdani is rushed with age:
Of course, Cuomo has his own luggage. According to the survey, however, only 39% see Mamdani unfavorably and 57% say that it has a good character. Since sympathy is important, Mamdani has a clear advantage over Cuomo.
But another way of seeing this is that Cuomo’s image problem can already be cooked. He is essentially a universally known political figure which resigned as governor in 2021 in the middle of the scandal. Cuomo figures may not improve the rest of this campaign a lot, but they may also not get worse.
Mamdani’s image may not be so fixed. He came out of virtual anonymity to win democratic appointment in June and voters always seem to determine what to do. During the months following the primary, his platform and his past declarations received a meticulous examination, which is obvious in the lukewarm nature of his support in this survey. A concerted, intelligent and well-funded anti-Mamdani thrust could still erode its position.
But, once again, it is only if the current composition of the race changes.
The White House breaks with Israel on the Qatar strike
By Doha Madani and Alexander Smith
Israel made a strike against the senior management of Hamas in Doha, the capital of Qatar, marking a significant escalation in its multi -ons conflict in the region.
There was an immediate political reaction to the attack with the White House which issued rare public criticisms of the action of Israel and several other countries, including the Saudi regional power and the United Arab Emirates, condemning the strike.
A member of the Hamas political bureau told Al Jazeera that the group’s senior management had survived the attack, raising the question of how the Israeli attack had been planned.
According to two US officials informed of the issue and a senior White House official, the Israeli government informed the United States that it was about to lead to Hamas leaders. Officials said the United States did not have much notice and clearly indicated that America was not directly involved.
The press secretary of the White House, Karoline Leavitt, read a statement during a press briefing this afternoon: “Unilaterally bombing in Qatar, a sovereign nation and an ally close to the United States, which works very hard to courageously take risks with us to negotiate peace, does not advance the objectives of Israel or America.”
She said President Donald Trump feels “very badly” about the location of the strike, but added that the elimination of Hamas was a “worthy goal”. She reaffirmed that Trump considers Qatar as a friend in the United States and that he wants war to end.
Learn more →
🗞️ The other best stories today
- 📝 Epstein saga: Trump refused to discuss the letter to the sex offender sentenced Jeffrey Epstein whom the Democrats in the House released, calling him a “dead problem” during a brief telephone call with NBC News. Learn more →
- ⚖️ Scotus watch: The Supreme Court agreed to quickly decide a confrontation with high issues on Trump’s prices and allowed the administration to temporarily retain $ 4 billion in foreign aid which was previously appropriate by the Congress.
- 📉 Download data: The number of jobs created in the United States from April 2024 to March 2025 was revised by 911,000 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Learn more →
- ➡️ Expulsion agenda: Immigration and customs application launched an operation long expected in Chicago targeting undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes. Meanwhile, the ice has abandoned paperwork agents
- 🩺 “Maha” report: Follow-up of the “Make America Healthy Again” report of the Trump administration aims to describe the steps to improve the health of children, but it is light on details and does not stop at the reduction of pesticides and ultra-grey food. Learn more →
- 🇨🇳 Exclusive: A bipartite group of legislators will make an official trip to China later this month, the first official visit of the members of the Chamber since 2019. Find out more →
- 💲elseWhere on the hill: The investment of representative Anna Paulina Luna, r-fla., In an energy company of a donor illustrates the potential limits of a prohibition to negotiate congresses. Learn more →
- 🤠 At the bottom of my heart: The representative of the State of Texas, James Talarico, was presented as a rising star of the Democratic Party, launched his campaign for the American Senate, creating a competitive primary against the former representative Colin Allred. Learn more →
- Update of redistribution: The Missouri Chamber has adopted a bill to redesign the lines of the State Congress in a republican effort to obtain an additional seat in the mid-term elections next year. Learn more →
- 🚫 The endless election: Fifteen so-called fake voters in Michigan will not face a criminal trial for their presumed involvement in efforts aimed at canceling the victory in the elections of Joe Biden in 2020 in the state. Learn more →
- 🗳️ If it’s Tuesday: Voters go to the ballot box in the 11th district of Virginia for a special election and in Boston for the primary of the mayor. Follow the live updates →
It’s all of the political bureau for the moment. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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