A competitive Texas Senate race looms over Tuesday’s primaries
AUSTIN, Texas — Democrats are starting to believe that the stars at night, big and bright, might just align in Texas.
Those lyrics from “Deep in the Heart of Texas,” the Lone Star State’s unofficial anthem, boomed through the speakers at a packed rally for state Rep. James Talarico ahead of Tuesday’s primary, with the prospect that Democrats might have a real chance of winning this year’s Senate race weighing heavily on voters’ minds.
“I get so excited every time,” said Certya Lockett, an Austin Democrat who attended the rally, while a friend pointed out that Lockett “gets heartbroken” every election cycle.
“Yeah, and then I can’t talk to anyone for days,” Lockett said. “But I feel – I feel good.” She said she was still torn between Talarico and Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Senate primary and would make her final decision based on “who can win.”
Talarico and Crockett presented different visions on how to win in November as Democrats seek their first statewide victory in Texas in more than 30 years. Talarico has emphasized cross-party appeal, while Crockett says she can stir up disillusioned voters who are more likely to support Democrats.
The possibility of a competitive November also divides Republican candidates, with longtime Sen. John Cornyn saying the controversial nomination of state Attorney General Ken Paxton would lead to a “massacre” for the Republican Party in Texas elections and endanger the Republican majority in the Senate.
The debate over which candidate is more electable is one familiar to both parties, echoing arguments from recent presidential primaries on each side. In the Democrats’ case, some of the nuances about race and gender discussed during the party’s 2020 primaries — ones that could divide presidential candidates in 2028 — have reappeared here.
“I think we have to be careful not to confuse electability with race or gender or fundraising, right? It’s the real person who can really go out and sell a message and galvanize people and excite them in a meaningful way,” said Jamarr Brown, a former executive director of the Texas Democratic Party who is not involved in the Senate race.
Brown said Democrats have “a very strong opportunity” this year and that the eventual Democratic nominee will need to build a coalition that includes Black, Latino and Asian voters, as well as Democrats, independents and, he said, “some disgruntled Republicans.”
Democratic divisions
Electability remains a top concern for Democratic voters, according to conversations with nearly 30 of them in recent days.
Talarico says he has built a strong campaign organization to compete statewide, noting at his rally that his campaign has recruited more than 22,000 volunteers statewide.
“If you hate politics and you’ve never voted before, you belong in this campaign. If you voted for Democrats but are tired of Washington Democrats always withdrawing, you belong in this campaign. And if you voted for Donald Trump but are tired of the extremism and corruption in our government, you belong in this campaign,” Talarico said.
Crockett said at an event with faith leaders in Houston that there had been a lot of discussion about what it would take to win Texas.
“They told us what would work and what wouldn’t work. And the reality is, over the last 30 years, none of that has worked,” Crockett said. She later said that as a black woman, “I can tell you that my path has always been a little different and a little more difficult. The reality is that I have always overcome every challenge in my life. This time it will be no different.”
Crockett told reporters after that event that Democrats would be energized by the Trump presidency and that his campaign was “showing up where people don’t normally show up,” at concerts and flea markets, and reaching voters through text messages and social media.
And Crockett’s supporters see her as a fighter who could better take on Republicans in November.
“Especially if Paxton wins, then she can confront him and elbow him, because he’s going to take them in the mud,” said Rodney Cobb, a voter who recently attended a Crockett campaign event in Conroe. He later said: “In Texas, it’s going to be a tough race. Talarico would be – I think he’ll be a little more polished. But if he’s not willing to nudge, he’s not going to do well.”
Talarico’s allies wonder if Crockett can win. A pro-Talarico super PAC launched a television ad with a narrator saying, “If she wins…we lose.” »
Crockett criticized the attacks, calling questions about his electability “nothing but a dog whistle” and saying the super PAC ad was “downright racist.”
A number of Talarico’s supporters said they liked Crockett but questioned whether she could win, with a few expressing concerns about her race and gender.
“As great as Jasmine Crockett is, rural Texas will probably be very reluctant to vote for a black woman, regardless of color,” said Karen Alexander, an Austin Democrat who attended Talarico’s rally. “I hate to say it, but I think he has a better chance of convincing them, and I think he’s working hard enough to get out on the road and convince them.”
Other Talarico supporters have described Crockett as too polarizing, due to the national profile she has built through her combative style and harsh criticism of Trump and Republicans.
Domingo Cruz, a 30-year-old Democrat who works in the technology sector, came to Talarico’s rally in Austin undecided between Crockett and Talarico. But he left the rally “pretty convinced” to support Talarico, who he said had a “unifying” message.
“I think we have to cross the aisle sometimes, as difficult as that may be, but it’s really going to be the only way, I guess, to take Texas back,” Cruz said.
Senate battleground?
With both Senate primaries volatile, Democrats have so far been reluctant to declare that Texas could be part of their path to the Senate majority. The party is expected to sweep key battleground states and win several states that Trump will carry by double digits in 2024.
Trump carried Texas by 14 points that year, more than double his 6-point margin in 2020. But Democrats believe they might have a better chance at a statewide victory this year with a more favorable political environment.
Trump’s approval rating has plummeted, and the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. In 2018, during Trump’s first stint in the White House, then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, found himself three points behind Republican Senator Ted Cruz.
Cornyn himself warned against Democratic enthusiasm this year, pointing out that they won a special election for a Texas state Senate seat that Trump won by 17 points.
“I think the Democrats are energized. … They’re suffering from real Trump derangement syndrome, and they have a very active, very active base that’s going to vote,” Cornyn said at a recent campaign event in Fort Worth.
Cornyn suggested he was the best candidate to counter that Democratic enthusiasm. He won each of his previous four Senate elections by 10 points or more, even outperforming Trump by a few points in 2020.
Trump did not support any candidates in the GOP primary including Cornyn, Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. He name-checked all three at an event Friday in Corpus Christi, saying the primary was “a little race, it’s going to be interesting.”
The loss of Cornyn’s Senate seat is a concern for some Republican voters, like Marilyn, a real estate broker who declined to share her last name as she cast an early vote for Cornyn on the first day of early voting in Austin.
“I think he’s the most electable,” she said, noting that she liked Hunt but thought he was “relatively new.”
“I don’t want to lose the seat,” she added, saying she wasn’t sure she could support Paxton if he were the nominee and raising concerns about allegations of bribery and corruption that led to his impeachment in 2023. The state Senate acquitted him.
Paxton, meanwhile, argued that he could energize Trump supporters, who are less likely to turn out when the president is not on the ballot.
“Ensuring that low-propensity America First voters are motivated to turn out in November is critical to Republican success in 2026, and John Cornyn is the worst person in Texas to do that,” Paxton said in mid-February.
Hunt, meanwhile, presented himself as a young conservative without the “baggage” of Hunt and Cornyn.
“Me against Talarico, me against Jasmine is better than either of those two gentlemen because of the energy, the youth, the optics, which matters a lot,” Hunt told a group of Republicans at Smith County GOP headquarters in Tyler. “And you’re going to have to have people ready to take on these people.”
The Republican primary is scheduled to go head-to-head on May 26. With the three candidates splitting their votes in the primary, it is unlikely that any one can win a majority and the nomination on Tuesday.
While recent public polls have found that Paxton will likely finish in first place on Tuesday, while Cornyn and Hunt vie for second place, Cornyn is confident he will advance to the runoff.
If he does, he will continue to argue that the Republican majority in the Senate is at stake.
“We might well lose the Senate if we’re not careful,” he said in Fort Worth. “I just think it’s one we should bank.”
