A Severe Weather Outbreak With Strong Tornadoes Is Possible From Texas To The Midwest

An outbreak of severe weather, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is forecast for the weekend from Texas to parts of the Midwest and South, part of a multi-day siege of thunderstorms also accompanied by hail, damaging winds and torrential rain.

(MORE: Severe Weather Outbreak Map Tracking)

This is happening now

Several segments of lines of thunderstorms sweep eastward over parts of the Central Plains and the southern Great Lakes.

(MORE: Live updates and latest news)

A strong tornado struck Three Rivers and Union City, Michigan, Friday afternoon, killing at least three people. Several probable tornadoes touched down between Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued the following tornado watches:

• A tornado watch for eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas, including Tulsa, Oklahoma; and for Dallas. This watch expires at 10:00 p.m. CST. Conditions there are already favorable for some strong tornadoes, very large hail and destructive wind gusts.

• A tornado watch for southwest Iowa, eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska, including Des Moines, Iowa and Salina, Kansas, until 10 p.m. CST.

• A tornado watch for parts of southeastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, including Springfield, Missouri, until 1 a.m. CST. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible.

• A tornado watch was issued for parts of western Illinois, southeastern Iowa, eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including Kansas City and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, until 4 a.m. CST.

• A severe thunderstorm is forecast for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan until 11 p.m. EST, including South Bend, Indiana; and Kalamazoo, Michigan. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible.

Moment of serious threat

Until Friday evening

As you can see from the map below, much of the central part of the country has at least a risk of severe thunderstorms through Friday evening.

According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, parts of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western Missouri and western Arkansas have the highest risk of being hit by at least a few stronger (EF2+) tornadoes.

However, scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are possible from parts of North Texas across the western Great Lakes to Wisconsin and Michigan.

Cities: Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee

(MORE: SPC releases new intensity forecasts)

This weekend

The story doesn’t end there.

Severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail are possible Saturday from the Ohio Valley and Appalachians to eastern and central Texas.

Fortunately, few, if any, severe storms are forecast for Sunday.

Next week

Additional strong to severe storms are expected early to mid next week, when a strong cold front will extend across the central and eastern United States while a powerful upper-level low pressure system over northern Mexico will eventually be pushed into the Plains.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted another threat of severe storms Tuesday and Wednesday, including some of the same areas hit this week in the Plains.

(CARDS: 7-day U.S. rain and thunderstorm forecast)

The severe threat shifts slightly eastward Wednesday, but still includes parts of Texas, Arkansas and now Louisiana.

Check back with us at Weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates to this forecast.

In the meantime, make sure you’re prepared before severe weather threatens your area.

Have multiple ways to receive official watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, including ways to wake up at night. Know the safest place to take shelter where you live and do so immediately when you receive a warning.

How much rain?

We have already seen flash flooding this week in parts of the Ohio Valley and Plains.

Water rescue was needed Wednesday on flooded roads on the south side of metro Dallas. At least several inches of water hit some homes and businesses Wednesday in Millville, Ohio, north of Cincinnati. Several buildings were flooded in Cape Girardeau, Missouri early Thursday.

Locally heavier rain is likely with these multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the middle of next week. Some areas from the Southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley could receive an additional 3 inches of rain or more.

This could lead to further flash flooding, particularly from the eastern half of Texas to eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Soak a drought

These parts of the country are in dire need of rainfall. Drought persists across much of the South, and the reason is actually quite simple.

Impacts so far

At least four tornadoes were seen or detected by radar in the eastern Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas Thursday evening.

A large EF2 tornado killed two people in northwest Oklahoma Thursday evening.

Damage was reported by storm spotters near Helena, Medford and Orienta, Oklahoma. Hail up to the size of chicken eggs – 2.25 inches in diameter – was reported in Hall County, Texas.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climatologist at Weather.com. He earned his undergraduate and master’s degrees at the University of Georgia, where he studied meteorology and experimented with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.