Aces vs. Fever, where to watch: Schedule, scores, TV channel as Las Vegas, Indiana collide in WNBA semifinals

Before the season, no one would have been surprised by a semifinal series between the Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever, both of whom had aspirations to contend for a title. A few months ago, however, when the Aces were below .500 and the Fever were without Caitlin Clark and mired in an injury crisis, it seemed improbable. 

The Aces suddenly flipped a switch and closed the regular season on a 16-game winning streak to earn the No. 2 seed, while the Fever won five of their final seven games to not only clinch a playoff berth but jump to the No. 6 seed. Both teams had to go the distance in the first round, but advanced after thrilling Game 3 wins over the Seattle Storm and Atlanta Dream, respectively.

WNBA playoff bracket, where to watch: Schedule, scores, TV channel as Mercury beat Liberty to advance to semis

Isabel Gonzalez

Jackie Young converted a go-ahead putback to give the Aces the lead with 12.4 seconds remaining, and they held on after Skylar Diggins’ potential game-winner did not go down. The Fever’s go-ahead bucket from Aliyah Boston came with 7.4 seconds left, and they escaped when Brionna Jones’ 3-point attempt at the buzzer clanged off the rim. 

Now, the Aces and Fever will meet with a trip to the Finals on the line. The Aces, who won the title in 2022 and 2023, are looking for their third trip to the Finals in the last four seasons. On the other hand, the Fever haven’t been to the Finals since 2015, when they lost in the Finals to the Minnesota Lynx. 

No. 2 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever

• Game 1: Fever at Aces (-8), Sunday, 3 p.m. ET — ABC / Fubo (Try for free)
• Game 2: Fever at Aces, Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET — ESPN / Fubo (Try for free)
• Game 3: Aces at Fever, Sept. 26, TBD — ESPN2 / Fubo (Try for free)
• Game 4*: Aces at Fever, Sept. 28, 3 p.m. ET — ABC / Fubo (Try for free)
• Game 5*: Fever at Aces, Sept. 30, TBD — TBD

*If necessary / Odds provided by FanDuel

Players to watch

Aces: A’ja Wilson

Wilson is the best player in the league, so this may seem obvious, but the Aces go as Wilson goes. She had 38 of their 74 points in their Game 3 win over the Storm and 88 of their 259 points (33.9%) in the series. Over the three games, she only sat for 14 minutes, and nearly eight of those came in the fourth quarter of the Aces’ blowout win in Game 1. While the Aces’ supporting cast has been much better over the last seven weeks, Wilson is the primary driving force behind their success. 

WNBA playoffs: A’ja Wilson’s utter dominance on both ends leads Aces to semifinal matchup with Fever

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Fever: Aliyah Boston

Boston, who hit the game-winning shot to send the Fever to the semifinals, has played a major role in keeping the Fever from falling apart amid all of their injury problems. Without Clark, the Fever run a significant portion of their offense through Boston, utilizing her as a hub for hand-offs and screens. She’s also their best interior defender and will have the primary responsibility for checking Wilson during this series. The Fever will need a massive series from Boston if they want to pull off another upset. 

Three keys to the series

The “real Aces”

The Fever won the season series between the two teams, 2-1. Coincidentally, their lone loss came with Clark, while their two wins were without her. What does that mean for this series? Aside from potentially giving the Fever some confidence, very little. 

All three of the Aces-Fever matchups happened in June and July, before Las Vegas started its incredible turnaround. In addition, the Fever still had Sydney Colson, Sophie Cunningham and Aari McDonald during those contests. 

“They haven’t seen the real Aces yet,” Vegas coach Becky Hammon said after her team’s Game 3 win on Thursday. “They caught us when we were a bit in turmoil. Not only that, they whooped us in one of those stretches. We’ll buckle in, hone in where we can and take care of business.” 

From opening day through Aug. 2, when the Aces lost by 53 points to the Minnesota Lynx, Vegas was 14-14 with a minus-3.0 net rating. Since then, the Aces have won 18 of their last 19 games and closed the regular season on a 16-game winning streak. During that streak, they boasted a staggering plus-16.5 net rating. 

The team the Fever beat twice in the regular season is not the team they’ll play in this series. 

Can Boston replicate regular-season success vs. Wilson?

A’ja Wilson is the best player in the world and may win a record fourth MVP later this month. But against Boston, her fellow South Carolina Gamecock, she looked nothing of the sort during the regular season. While Wilson averaged 24.3 points per game against the Fever in their three regular-season meetings, she shot 24 of 56 (42.9%) from the field. The only team she had a worse field goal percentage against during the regular season was the New York Liberty. 

The 6-foot-5 Boston, who is a candidate for both All-WNBA and All-Defensive honors, was the primary defender against Wilson when the teams met this season and did an excellent job. Here’s a look at the difference between when Boston was guarding Wilson and when anyone else had the responsibility. Note: All data was hand-tracked. 

The primary reason Boston had so much success against Wilson was that, thanks to her size and strength, she was able to keep the MVP candidate away from the basket. Of Wilson’s 38 shot attempts with Boston as her primary defender, 25 of them were jumpers. On those attempts in particular, Wilson was 7 of 25. 

While Wilson is a very solid jump shooter, she’s nearly unstoppable around the basket. For the season, she shot 45.2% on mid-range attempts, compared to 70% on restricted area attempts. If you can turn Wilson into a jump shooter, you at least have a chance, but if she’s feasting at the rim, you do not. 

How do the Fever score enough?

Kelsey Mitchell and Boston helped keep the Fever’s offense afloat during the regular season without Clark, but doing so in the playoffs has proved much more difficult. 

During their first-round series against the Dream, the Fever shot 39.9% from the field, including 28.6% from 3-point range, turned the ball over 40 times and had an offensive rating of 96.7. Mitchell (70) and Boston (37) combined for 107 of their 232 points. 

While the Fever’s defense proved formidable in the first round, they got some help from the Dream on that end of the floor. In order to pull off another upset, they’re going to have to score to keep up with Wilson and the Aces, who boasted a 111.6 offensive rating in the first round. 

Even if you pencil Mitchell and Boston in for 40-45 points per game — more than the 35.6 they combined to average in the first round — where are the other points coming from? Odyssey Sims is the only other player scoring in double figures, and she’s at 10.3 points per game on 28.1% shooting. A big 3-point shooting series from Lexie Hull, who shot 36.7% in the regular season but was 3 of 12 in the first round, would go a long way. 

But even then, it’s just hard to see how the Fever find enough offense to match the Aces, given how limited their options are on that end of the floor. 

Prediction

The Aces were the consensus pre-playoffs pick to get to the Finals from this side of the bracket, and are even bigger favorites now that the Fever have upset the Dream. Per Caesars, the Aces are -1400 to win this best-of-five matchup. The Fever’s never-say-die attitude has been extremely impressive, but this feels like too big a hill to climb. The Aces just have too much talent. Pick: Aces in 4