Key events
With about 40 minutes to kickoff we can have a short history lesson. The Broncos and Patriots have met twice before in the AFC Championship game. In 2016 when Denver’s defense shut Tom Brady down to sneak a 20-18 win then they rose up again to batter Cam Newton and the Panthers for a 24-10 win in Super Bowl 50. Two years before the Broncos prevailed again behind a monster 400 yard passing day from Payton Manning before losing heavily to the Packers in the big one.
Will history repeat itself? It certainly might need to, regarding Denver’s defense dominating, as the backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham starts in place of the injured Bo Nix, who broke his ankle in the victory last week over Buffalo. The 29-year-old replacement has not started an NFL game in two years and in four career starts is 1-3. So a lack of any significant game experience will have New England’s defense confident of ruining his big day. What Stidham has gained since his last start in 2023 though is time working with a brilliant head coach in Sean Payton. The offensive guru is sure to have been working triple overtime to cook up a simplified playbook. Payton will be prioritising protecting Stidham from costly mistakes while making sure there are still a few surprises baked in that utilise the QB’s impressive athletic ability when scrambling out of the pocket. He can throw a bit too …
Preamble
Hi and hello football fans, is it just me or is there magic in the air? The wait is almost over, the race almost run … yes, when the dust is settled today we will know the combatants for Super Bowl LX! And Donald Trump isn’t going to the big game because California is too far for him to travel! Oh, what a day … what a lovely day!
There is still two bits of business to attend to though, the small big matter of an AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos that begins at 2pm CT/3pm ET/8pm GMT then the NFC’s edition after as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks.
My pick is stuck on a Patriots v Seahawks final in a couple of weeks but it is still wide open because any given Sunday … right? I hope we get a fantastic pair of games regardless because the NFL playoffs are what living is gentlepeople. Hoo-HA!
Graham will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s his preview of today’s game:
New England Patriots v Denver Broncos (Sunday 3pm ET/8pm GMT)
What New England need to do to win: Clean up their act. Last week against the Houston Texans, Drake Maye was blindsided too often by edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The pair wreaked havoc, sacking Maye five times and forcing him into three of his four fumbles. The Los Angeles Chargers also forced two from him in the wildcard round. Denver led the league in sacks (68) in the regular season, and will be intent on causing similar damage on Sunday. But Maye can mitigate that threat if he sharpens his awareness in the pocket and takes the sack rather than rushing into impossible passes. New England’s left tackle Will Campbell is very likely to lose a couple of duels with edge defender Nik Bonitto, so Maye needs to be ready for a helmet sandwich while holding on to the ball for dear life. Simply punting and giving Denver’s second-string quarterback, Jarrett Stidham, tough field position may be all it takes to reach the Super Bowl.
What Denver need to do to win: Limit the Patriots to 20 points or fewer. Stidham then needs to stay calm and manage the offense with care rather than forcing the ball against a team with a great defense. It would be ideal if Denver can generate a huge day in the run game but without the injured Bo Nix’s scrambles they just don’t have the quality to ease the burden on Stidham. So it’s up to you Stiddy … or is it? Denver’s receivers certainly need to do a better job of catching the ball, specifically their best wideout, Courtland Sutton, who endured a serious case of dropsy against Buffalo. The offensive line is rock solid, but even so Stidham will have to be patient and wait for his wide men to get open rather than panicking in the face of pressure. CJ Stroud’s meltdown last week is a cautionary tale about what happens when New England’s QB hunters get in your head.
Key player for the Patriots: Stefon Diggs, wide receiver. Diggs is the perfect antidote to Denver’s excellent passing defense. The 32-year-old still has immaculate hands and is as reliable as they come, finishing 12th for receptions in the regular season despite being 34th for total targets, with only two drops. If Maye finds Diggs in the end zone you can guarantee the receiver will rise to the occasion.
Key player for the Broncos: Garett Bolles, left tackle. The veteran just keeps getting better, and he earned his first All-Pro accolade this season at 33 years old. In 2025, Bolles allowed just six QB hits and zero sacks across the regular season. That’s exactly the kind of protection Stidham needs in only the fifth NFL start of his career.
Prediction: Patriots over Broncos. The home crowd spurring on Denver’s defense to even greater heights will make it close, just not close enough. The Broncos offense is likely to be overmatched and outscored by Maye’s superior ability to make plays under pressure.
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