Alabama vs. Texas Tech odds, spread, time: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The final game of the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament will pit the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide against the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Alabama is coming off a 90-70 win over Hofstra in the first round and is 24-9 this season, while Texas Tech picked up a 91-71 win over Akron and is 23-10. This will be the ninth meeting all-time between these two programs and the first time they will face off during March Madness.

Tip-off for this Midwest Region matchup is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. The Red Raiders are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Texas Tech odds, while the over/under is 164.5. Both teams are -110 on the money line (risk $110 to win $100). Before making any Texas Tech vs. Alabama picks, check out the Texas Tech vs. Alabama predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. He entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a torrid 11-1 streak on his highest-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 streak on the CBB’s highest-rated side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Alabama vs. Texas Tech 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can now head over to SportsLine to see the model’s choices. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Texas Tech vs. Alabama:

Best Alabama vs. Texas Tech Predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Texas Tech vs. Alabama, SportsLine’s model is exceeding the total (164.5 points). This will be somewhat of a pace matchup, with Alabama ranking fourth in the nation in KenPom adjusted pace (73.2) and Texas Tech ranking 253rd (66.1). However, both of these offenses are incredibly efficient, and the Red Raiders in particular have proven they can play at any speed.

Alabama ranked third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (129.3) while Texas Tech ranked 10th (125.8), and both teams had 90 or more points in their first-round matchups. Each team should have four players in double figures. The model predicts that the Over reaches in 60% of simulations and projects that there will be 171 combined points scored on average. You can get the broadcast pick on SportsLine.

How to make Texas Tech vs. Alabama picks

Now, the model has simulated every Alabama possession against Texas Tech 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only see this pick on SportsLine.

So who does Alabama win against Texas Tech, and which side of the spread reaches more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which way Texas Tech vs. Alabama went, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.