Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Who will win the Australian Open title?

No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will face No. 4 Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open men’s final – with history on the line. Will Alcaraz win and become the youngest man to win all four major titles? Or will Djokovic defy all odds and win a record 25th Grand Slam title?

Who will it be? Our experts break it down.

What can Alcaraz do to defeat Djokovic?

D’Arcy Maine: In Friday’s semifinal, Alcaraz suffered injuries, cramps and even vomiting during the 5 hour and 27 minute encounter – not to mention the incredible play of Alexander Zverev – and still came away with the victory. Asked afterward how he won despite the circumstances, Alcaraz said he continued to “believe in it, believe in it, all the time.”

And that gets to the heart of what makes Alcaraz so good. He knows he can win no matter what and fights until the last point. Clearly the best player in tennis at this point, and with the physical advantage, if Alcaraz maintains the same fighting spirit and undoubted determination he has shown, it should be his to win.

Jake Michaels: Alcaraz’s revamped serve (compared to Djokovic’s, no less!) has been his secret weapon in this tournament. If he continues to land his first serve at a higher rate, he will be difficult to defeat, even for the greatest returner in tennis history.

Plus, and this may seem incredibly retrospective because he’s 16 years younger than his opponent, but Alcaraz needs to end the match quickly. After his epic and grueling five-and-a-half hour semi-final win over Zverev in the heat of the day, the longer this final lasts, the more the pendulum swings in Djokovic’s favor. It’s not just because the 24-time major champion is fresher, having spent four hours less on court to reach the final, but because he knows how to win when these legacy-defining Grand Slam matches are played to the bitter end.

Jarryd Barça: This is obviously the case for both players, but Alcaraz doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel; he simply has to be the best version of himself. The world number 1 showed no disappointment throughout the tournament, dismissing his first five opponents in straight sets, before enduring that wild, physically and mentally exhausting five-set semi-final with Zverev. He began to cramp and barely move during the closing stages of the third set, but Alcaraz showed the kind of steely determination we have long associated with Djokovic, overcoming a 3-5 deficit in the fifth set to win despite being far from his peak.

Tactically, variety will be key. Alcaraz needs to disrupt Djokovic’s rhythm with changes in pace and direction, something Jannik Sinner didn’t do enough of in his semifinal loss. Alcaraz needs to take comfort away from Djokovic and make him work for every point. If Alcaraz can tire out the 38-year-old’s legs early and often, his equally stunning athleticism and creativity should tip the scales in his favor.

What can Djokovic do to defeat Alcaraz?

Maine: While recovery will obviously be key for both players heading into Sunday’s final, it will be crucial for Djokovic. At 38, Friday’s marathon semifinal will likely affect Djokovic more than the five-plus-hour battle the 22-year-old Alcaraz endured. To win the elusive 25th major title — it’s impressive he’s even in this position — he’ll need All he has.

And if Djokovic can find more gas in the tank, he will have to use a similar strategy to the one he used in last year’s quarterfinal match. In that four-set win over Alcaraz, Djokovic lost the first set and, despite an obvious injury, then took control. He began dictating points aggressively, and began ripping groundstrokes and taking one risky shot after another and relentlessly maintaining the pressure until it was over. But whatever tactics he uses, Djokovic will need his best to achieve this victory.

Michaels: Djokovic’s contrast in attitude and level of play between the quarter-finals and semi-finals was striking. Against Lorenzo Musetti in the round of 16, Djokovic looked subdued and almost disinterested as he lost the first two sets. But on Friday night, in this titanic battle against Sinner, Djokovic once again looked like the man with the heart of a lion and the greatest tennis skills in history. For Djokovic to beat Alcaraz on Sunday night, he cannot return to his behavior from the quarterfinals – even for a second. He must continue to be the aggressor. He must be ruthless. It must come alive. And if he manages to achieve all this, the public will certainly support him and allow him to win a 25th major title.

Barca: As in Alcaraz, it starts with recovery, but the execution will decide everything, as was the case on Friday evening. His serve was extraordinary against Sinner, and it should be again, Djokovic winning 86% of first serve points in the second set and 77% in the fourth, using his precise placements to escape pressure and dictate play. This allowed him to swing his forehand freely throughout the match, playing with an aggression rarely seen this late in his career, but which was necessary to topple the two best players in the world.

Against Alcaraz, Djokovic must match that pace and intensity again. But he doesn’t need to surpass the Spaniard on every point. Djokovic must outlast him in big moments and find ways to replicate the 16 of 18 break points he saved against Sinner. It was the difference in the semi-final. Limiting Alcaraz’s chances by remaining agile, courageous and protecting his serve will go a long way in finding a way to win again.

Who will win?

Maine: Alcaraz is the favorite, but we’ve all seen what Djokovic can do – and the magic he’s found so often throughout his storied career. While fatigue may be a factor, Djokovic knows this could be his best (and perhaps last) chance to secure the 25th spot and, as he did in the Olympic gold medal match against Alcaraz, he will give everything to achieve it. I can’t object to it. Djokovic in four sets.

Michaels: For years, I wrote that you couldn’t count Djokovic out at the Australian Open, no matter the circumstances. He proved once again how true that was on Friday night as he dethroned defending champion Sinner with one of his greatest performances of his illustrious career. At 38, he should not be in the final. It shouldn’t be able to compete with this next generation. And yet he is. How can you oppose him? Djokovic will win in five exciting sets.

Barca: Both men arrive in the final bruised and bruised. Alcaraz battled cramps to survive the third longest match in tournament history against Zverev, while veteran Djokovic produced one of the great performances of his career to dethrone two-time defending champion Sinner in more than four hours despite his own visible physical struggles.

So, does it all boil down to healing? Is it really the one who wakes up the freshest? Who avoids physical problems longer? Djokovic’s story matters a lot here. He has never lost an Australian Open final, has already turned back the clock once this week and thrives when the stakes rise. Alcaraz may be the world No. 1, but Djokovic knows this stage better than anyone and could have a mental advantage, leading the head-to-head 5-4. If Djokovic can produce something close to his level again in the semi-finals, it’s hard not to trust him. Djokovic in five.