Alvarez a top-10 bat? Ohtani wins Cy Young? Perdomo for real? Don’t be surprised

Every week in MLB is its own story – full of surprises, both positive and negative – and Fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe going forward. Maybe we can help you. If any of these thoughts come true…don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised… if Yordan Alvarez’s Houston Astros return to top-10 hitter status

It wasn’t that long ago that the fantasy world considered Alvarez a top-10 hitter, and while we’re only a week into the 2026 season, he certainly looks like he could be that player again. Alvarez homered in the second game of the season against the Los Angeles Angels, then he homered in each of the first two games of the next series, against the Boston Red Sox. Alvarez has three multi-hit games in six opportunities, with more walks than strikeouts. Welcome back, Alvarez! He is a monster fantasy hitter in both point and spin/category formats.

Alvarez averaged 34 home runs and 96 RBIs from 2021 to 2024. Only six players hit more home runs in those four seasons, and New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge was the only one with a higher batting average than Alvarez, who hit .296. Alvarez hasn’t stolen many bases or appeared in 150 games in a season, but few hitters have shown consistency in terms of power and plate discipline. His 2025 season lost to a broken hand and sprained ankle should be quickly forgotten, even though he enjoyed a several-round reduction in this year’s ADP.

Some point out that Alvarez is riskier than most because he only averaged 135 games in his four years of glory, and then last season he missed 114 games. In fact, some consider Alvarez, who is only DH in many leagues (but not on ESPN), to be “fragile” – much like they do for the Angels OF Mike Trout or the Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton. OK, so we can’t guarantee that Alvarez (or Trout…or Buxton, LOL) hits 500 times this season. Maybe they didn’t all hit 30 home runs either. I choose to view 2025 as Alvarez’s outlier season. If anyone in your league doesn’t believe in Alvarez, go get him.

Don’t be surprised… if Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani is truly a viable NL Cy Young Award candidate

While we all have to agree that Ohtani is awesome and the most special player on a baseball field, I have to admit that I haven’t always been so positive about his pitching. Well, to be clear, this was always pretty much planned volume. After all, Ohtani has made more than 23 starts in just one of his nine MLB seasons. While his career ERA after Tuesday’s impressive six innings of a hit and a shutout against the Cleveland Guardians sits at 2.96 (with a 1.07 WHIP and solid 11.9 K/9), we have to look at him as a hitter first. Everything we get off the mound is even more fun.

Ohtani is said to consider himself a pitcher first and, after winning the Rookie of the Year award and three MVP awards, he also wants a Cy Young. Could this be the year? Again, I’m skeptical that the powerhouse Dodgers, blessed with unique pitching depth and capable of grinding their way through the next six months in preparation for the October playoffs, would risk anything physically with any of their pitchers, especially their leadoff MVP hitter. Ohtani could force the issue. Rate-wise, he certainly looks like a top-10 pitcher, maybe not Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, but strange things sometimes happen to even the best players.

Last season, I predicted the Dodgers would be extremely cautious when Ohtani was coming off Tommy John surgery, and he pitched just 47 innings in 14 mostly truncated starts. His rate stats were great, but fantasy managers probably weren’t happy overall. Ohtani made 28 starts for the 2022 Angels, throwing 166 innings. His 2.33 ERA and 1.01 WHIP (and 219 strikeouts) earned him 4th place in the AL Cy Young Award. Nobody beat Detroit Tigers RHP Justin Verlander (1.75 ERA) that season. Maybe no one surpasses Skenes this year, but I bet Ohtani finally makes it, maybe even getting back to 166 innings. This may be enough. Depending on your league’s rules, this could be his most valuable fantasy season ever.

Don’t be surprised… if Arizona Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo is the team’s best fantasy option – again

What about the very popular OF Corbin Carroll from Arizona, you say? That’s a good point. Carroll could have MVP awards or even the Hall of Fame in his future. Perdomo was never supposed to be a great fantasy option and last season he hit .290 with 20 homers, 100 RBIs, 27 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts in 161 games. Carroll was terrific last season, hitting 31 homers, stealing 32 bases and scoring 107 runs…and Perdomo still outranked him in ESPN leagues by 70 points. Some of it was volume, but it’s mostly about plate discipline. Why can’t this happen again?

Maybe it doesn’t matter, because Perdomo and Carroll are universally listed, but I’ve been reading and hearing all spring from fantasy analysts how Perdomo “could never do” This again” and I meant, uh, why not? Perdomo is batting third for the Diamondbacks, right after Carroll. He homered off Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the opener, perhaps a reminder that his astonishing 2025 power was legitimate. The plate discipline and speed are still real.

I don’t suppose Perdomo finishes fifth among all hitters in ESPN points yet this season (Carroll finished 14th), but I expect them both to finish well inside the top 20. Yes, Perdomo is real, and maybe (as he went five rounds after Carroll in the ESPN ADP) he’s still underrated.

Don’t be surprised… if Pirates OF Oneil Cruz hits .259 this season

That number may seem awfully accurate, but that’s what Cruz hit in 2024. Last season, he hit .200. There is obviously a big difference between 0.259 and 0.200. The tantalizing Cruz possesses extreme raw power and lousy discipline, but when he makes contact, baseballs often fly far. One went far Tuesday, when left-hander Cruz blasted a 444-footer off Cincinnati Reds LHP Brandon Williamson. On Tuesday, Cruz launched a 407-foot three-pointer to Reds LHP Andrew Abbott. Hmm, that might be important.

Cruz hit a single home run excluding left-handed pitcher in 2025. Today, he has two! In fact, one could easily have argued that this player, as intriguing as he is, should Never against left-handers. He was 11 for 108 last season (.102/.224/.176) for a .400 OPS. Yes, a .159 BABIP played a role, but Cruz looked awful against left-handers. His career batting average of .178 against lefties is 23rd worst for any skilled hitter this decade. A handful of plate appearances against a few Reds lefties this week changes little, but we can be optimistic.

Meanwhile, the former shortstop was moved to center field in late 2024 and, honestly, he looks like the worst center fielder in the sport. He’s already made several embarrassing plays this season, including a few that cost Skenes in Game 1. One could argue that Cruz should also play in the minor leagues to learn how to play the field. However, this seems unlikely.

Look, hitters are constantly adjusting their mechanics and strategy and maybe Cruz, with two home runs against lefties in the first week, has done that too. After all, he hit a much more acceptable .224/.266/.420 against a left-handed pitcher (six of his 21 homers) in 2024. That’s still bad, but not as atrocious.

I admit that I don’t have any fantasy parts of Cruz anywhere. He has struck out more than 30% of the time over the past two seasons. He’s yet to come close to 30 homers in a season, nor has he scored 75 runs in a season, although that’s not entirely his fault. I cleared him, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still hit .259 overall, even with all those strikeouts. Nonetheless, I recommend, armed with this recent news regarding his home runs against lefties, that you try to trade him.