Analysis: Why Gaza truce puts Netanyahu and Hamas at political risk
JERUSALEM — Thursday’s ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was a jubilant moment in one of the darkest periods of the decades-old conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. But for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas, the deal could be the poison pill that spells their downfall.
Netanyahu, who with a total of 17 years in power is the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, now faces a tomorrow in Gaza that looks very different from the vision he used to woo his allies and keep his opponents at bay.
Hamas, on the other hand, faces a population ravaged by war and which was tired of its power even before the attack of October 7, 2023; Two years later, with more than 67,000 dead, many more injured and most of the Palestinian enclave in ruins, most Gazans are furious at what they see as a reckless gamble by the militant group.
Daily life continues in the war-torn Gaza Strip as Palestinians in Deir al Balah wait on October 9, 2025 for the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to take effect.
(Ali Jadallah/Anadolu/Getty Images)
The deal, which President Trump reached after weeks of consultations with – not to mention intense pressure on – Israel and a number of Arab and Muslim countries, brings a certain victory that both sides can claim, namely the exchange that will see all remaining Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity exchanged for thousands of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
Both Netanyahu and Hamas have touted it as a success.
“This is a diplomatic success and a national and moral victory for the State of Israel,” Netanyahu wrote on X on Thursday, attributing the breakthrough to “unwavering determination and powerful military action,” as well as Trump’s efforts.
Hamas, meanwhile, said in a statement that the agreement was the result of the “firmness of the Palestinian people” and their “Resistance”, a reference to Palestinian factions.
Yet these victories can hardly be called complete.
Netanyahu had promised that Hamas would not only be defeated but defeated, with the removal of its arsenal. He also made it his long-standing mission to ensure that no Palestinian state was created – something he hoped to achieve by conquering Gaza and annexing the West Bank.
Students and supporters of the Jamaat-e-Islami political party gather to express solidarity with Palestinians during an anti-Israel protest in Islamabad, Pakistan, October 9, 2025.
(Aamir Qureshi / AFP/Getty Images)
Instead, the Israeli military has halted its offensive while the fate of Hamas’s weapons remains uncertain, and Trump recently said he “would not allow” Israel to annex the West Bank.
Furthermore, Trump’s 20-point plan not only put an end to the idea of expelling Gaza residents, but also encouraged them to stay. And Netanyahu was forced to accept the prospect of a Palestinian state just days after a categorical speech to the United Nations rejecting such an idea.
Already, the coalition he relies on to stay in power is showing fractures, with extremist figures representing settler interests expressing anger that Netanyahu has failed to stay the course and continue fighting.
His opponents, for their part, see the end of the conflict as an opportunity to oust him. And his detractors among Israeli voters – elections are scheduled for October 2026 – are not only ready to reject him at the ballot box, but also to exclude anyone associated with his leadership.
Thursday, on Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, the Israelis showed a certain rage. When Benny Gantz, an Israeli opposition leader who served in Netanyahu’s cabinet until last year, walked through the crowd, hecklers shouted at him to “go home,” accusing him of claiming success he did not deserve.
“When the war started, Gantz joined Bibi and saved him instead of bringing down his government,” said Einat Mastbaum, a 50-year-old Hebrew teacher, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. These actions, she said, kept Netanyahu’s government in place and prolonged the hostages’ ordeal.
Udi Goren, 44, whose cousin Tal Haimi was killed on October 7, 2023, said Israel needed new faces to bring the change many Israelis demanded after this war.
“Now is the time for us – Israelis and Palestinians – to support a better future, to craft a new narrative for ourselves,” he said. “After what we’ve been through over the last two years, we don’t want this to happen again. »
Einav Zangauker, in a blue shirt, the mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, celebrates people’s reaction to the news of the peace deal between Israel and Hamas at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, October 9, 2025.
(Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
Yet it would be foolish to ignore Netanyahu, an accomplished politician in the Israeli political landscape who has repeatedly proven his ability to gauge the national mood and bounce back from setbacks, including a protracted corruption trial that he managed to postpone throughout the war, and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.
While his claim to totally defeat Hamas falls short, he can nonetheless rightly point out that he left Israel with unquestionable hegemony in the region, whether by decimating the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah or dealing a crippling blow to Iran. If implementation of the agreement continues smoothly, it could also succeed in extending normalization agreements to other Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. Polls show that he has regained his popularity after suffering a major blow in the days following the October 7 attack.
And the deal “will strengthen it,” said Dahlia Scheindlin, a public opinion researcher in Israel.
“It will make him feel like he’s the only one in the country who can work so well with Trump.”
“He’s a lot more popular today than he was five days ago,” Trump said at the White House.
Hamas’s situation seems more complicated. He said he would play no role in the future governance of Gaza – a key demand from Israel and the United States. But his main rival in the Palestinian Authority, which governed Gaza until Hamas’ victory in the 2006 elections, is seen by many Palestinians as hopelessly corrupt, not to mention downright treacherous because of his security coordination with Israel, which saw the authority’s forces attack Palestinian resistance groups and anti-Israel activists.
At the same time, the idea that Hamas has any power seems untenable.
“They dragged all of Gaza into the fire. Our homes, our jobs, our future were all destroyed because of reckless decisions,” said Nidal Laqqan, 37, a former trader from Khan Yunis displaced for two years.
He said many people he knows feel the same way.
“People are angry. It was an uncalculated adventure,” he said. “We need a new Palestinian leadership that puts our interests first. No more military measures will be taken without thinking of the people who will pay the price.”
Special Envoy Bilal Shbeir in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, contributed to this report.
