National security threatened by climate crisis, UK intelligence chiefs due to warn | Environment

The UK’s national security is under serious threat from the climate crisis and the imminent collapse of vital natural ecosystems, with food shortages and economic disaster potentially within years, a powerful report from British intelligence chiefs should warn.

However, the report, which was due to be launched at a historic event in London on Thursday, was delayed, and concerns were raised to the Guardian that it could have been blocked by Number 10.

The destabilizing impact of climate and natural crises on national security is one of the biggest risks facing Britain, according to the Joint Intelligence Committee report.

Food import supply chains are already under pressure, with prices of some commodities rising. This situation could be exacerbated in the near future, defense experts warn, with the UK too dependent on imports.

Other industries will also be affected by the collapse of ecosystems in places like the Amazon and the worsening effects of extreme weather around the world. These impacts will not be felt in the distant future, as some had complacently assumed, ministers were told, but they are already being felt and will increase as temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The hard-hitting report was due to be released on Thursday at a historic event in London. But the Guardian understands that the report, prepared by experts over several months, has been discontinued.

A source told the Guardian she feared it would be removed because the government was unwilling to deal with the issues raised. Foreign aid, officially known as official development assistance (ODA), which could help stabilize countries most at risk from the climate crisis and avoid some of the predicted impacts, has been reduced.

“This is a very strong warning,” another source familiar with the content told the Guardian. “It is very clear that the impacts on national security are of great concern. »

Food poses the biggest risk, as the UK imports an increasing proportion of its food from abroad, some of which comes from regions known to be at risk of climate catastrophe and ecosystem collapse. The clothing and fashion industry is also already under strain, as many fabrics come from at-risk areas.

Migration from countries most affected by the climate and biodiversity crises will also have an impact on society and the economy. Some of the worst affected countries are likely to experience the fall of governments and rising social disorder, leading to political instability which will in turn impact on the security of the UK.

Defense chiefs have been warning about the climate crisis for two decades, and the UK was the first country to force a discussion on the issue at the UN Security Council in 2007. But little has been done since to address the impacts of climate change and ecosystem collapse on national security.

Defense experts are increasingly concerned about inaction, and some have called for climate finance to be considered part of national security spending.

The UN’s Cop30 climate summit, to be held next month in Brazil, is likely to show that most countries are far behind targets to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to prevent global temperatures from rising above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Prime Minister Keir Starmer was due to travel to Cop30, where the UK can boast some of the world’s most ambitious targets and strong achievements in reducing emissions. But the Guardian understands some of his advisers want him to stay home, fearing the Reform Party will attack him for leaving.

A government spokesperson said: “This government is taking strong action to strengthen the UK’s food security and reverse the trend of nature decline, as well as to prepare for the impacts of climate change and nature loss… [including] provide £11.6 billion in international climate finance by the end of 25/26.

Zac Goldsmith, Boris Johnson’s former Conservative minister, said tackling the nature crisis must be given equal priority to the climate crisis as a defense issue.

“There are many nature supporters within the Labor Party, but with the departure of David Lammy from the Foreign Office it is very clear that nature has been significantly deprioritized and we are left with a one-dimensional focus on carbon alone,” he said. “Starmer appears to be the first British Prime Minister to skip a cop-out in order to avoid being denounced for showing up empty-handed and even abandoning existing commitments.”

Goldsmith added: “There is currently no sign that the UK will support [Brazilian] President Lula’s revolutionary plan to reverse the destruction of the world’s great tropical forest basins, although it was developed with extensive UK input. Some of our most beloved and respected programs are at risk of being eliminated. [from ODA cuts]. And although we are at the forefront in all areas of global ocean protection, we are now accused of hindering progress towards protecting Antarctica.

“It now appears that a seminal Joint Intelligence Committee report into the threats to the UK’s security posed by the collapse of critically important ecosystems is being swept under the carpet by a government embarrassed by its failure to show leadership on this issue. »