Want a Red Wave in California? Start Facing the Brutal Math – RedState
Forget the buzz. Hard data indicate a clear thing: California does not become red soon. The reality is that most of the districts are mathematically non -zero for the Republicans.
After Trump was surprisingly strong in 2024 in California, the Republicans started talking about the red wave again. But mathematics, not the mood decide on the elections – and mathematics do not lie.
An analysis carried out by The voting book reveals to what extent the challenge has become striking for the Republicans. In the districts of California where the Democrats hold:
- Registration advantage from 0 to 5%The races are throws.
- Advantage of 5 to 10%Democrats save almost 66% of the time.
- Advantage of 10 to 15%The victory rate increases to 85%.
- Advantage of 15 to 20%Democrats earn more than 93% of races.
- Above 20% advantageThe Republicans have practically no way to victory.
It is not in favor of complaining. It’s Math.
And if you are a republican strategist, a candidate or a talking head in California, ignoring these figures, you do not do your job. The political geography of the state will not change tweets, media appearances or very popular rallies.
The belief that California is “to get red” is dangerously misleading. He wastes resources, deceives candidates and blocks honest self-assessment. The result? No real progress, just recycled.
Need proof?
Look at my race in the 43rd district of the Congress. Maxine Waters has occupied the headquarters for over 30 years. The recording gap? 58.66% Democrat at 11.73% republican. Consequently, I only received 24.9% of the vote, overputoring the registration, but far from being sufficiently sufficient to win. It is not a lack of effort. It is structural mathematics.
Do not be fooled by the media or the chambers of political echo. You cannot earn what is mathematically non -zero.
Republicans do not lose in these districts because voters are too liberal. They lose because the calculations are stacked against them.
But there is a way forward:
- Widen the base thanks to the relentless recording. We must develop the base by reaching the voters at low height: families of the working class, young voters, independent and disillusioned democrats. Many are recorded; They just don’t vote. We have to hire them all year round, Not just in electoral cycles.
- Refine the message. Our message must reflect skill, Not just complaints. People care about public security, cost of living, schools and housing, not national discussion points. When we direct with solutions instead of slogans, we start to gain confidence between the lines of the parties.
- Invest in the participation infrastructure. Win starts with field operations. This means that the captains of the constituency, the pursuit of the ballot, the commitment of anticipated votes and contact all year round. Volunteers, local leaders and trusted messengers must be trained, equipped and active – not only for six weeks, but for twelve months.
There is no shortcut. No gadget. No night correction.
While some cling to the comfort of social media bubbles, the real world demands more than slogans and pretty faces. California Republicans must go beyond the overhaul and honestly face the figures.
If we want a red wave in California, we have to win it – vote by vote, block by block, year by year.
We don’t need more noise.
We need more constituency captains.
