Severe weather is once again in the forecast for the Plains and Midwest this week, with tornadoes, hail and damaging winds.
Timing
While severe thunderstorms will be scattered in nature, similar areas may be in the threat zone multiple days. Below is a breakdown day-by-day:
Through early Monday
Scattered severe thunderstorms or clusters of storms are possible from the Southern Plains to the upper Midwest. Ctities like San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Wichita, Kansas, are in the greatest chance for storms.
If any supercell thunderstorms can develop, some tornadoes are possible. Otherwise, any thunderstorm clusters pose a risk of very large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.
Monday through Monday night
Scattered severe storms are again possible from the Southern Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley. The two areas of greatest concern are the darker shades across central Texas and southern Oklahoma and across southern Minnesota, central Wisconsin, northern Iowa and northern Illinois.
For the darker shaded area across the Southern Plains, large hail, wind gusts and a tornado threat are possible. For the darker shaded area across the upper Mississippi Valley, large hail is the main threat.
The Storm Prediction Center has added an area where we could likely see large hail and tornadoes. This area includes places like Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington, Minnesota.
Tuesday
– Tuesday: While there’s still some uncertainty in the forecast, Tuesday could be an interesting day. Incredibly high instability will help fuel strong to severe storms from Texas to the Midwest, with tornadoes, hail and damaging winds. We could see storms fire up beginning in the afternoon and lasting through the evening.
Wednesday through Friday
Severe weather will be possible again Wednesday and Friday. While the details are still being fine-tuned, we do expect all modes of severe weather will be possible.
At this point, you might be growing weary of this relentless severe weather pattern. However, don’t let your guard down and make sure you are staying up-to-date on the latest forecast.
Some major cities that could be under the threat of severe weather these days could be Chicago, Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Dallas.
Flash Flooding Threat
Locally heavy rain from these thunderstorms over multiple days in the Plains and Midwest could trigger flash flooding, even though much of the Plains is still in drought.
Why The Severe Parade?
What is going on here is actually pretty interesting. We have a high pressure system that is sitting across the eastern U.S. This is forcing Gulf moisture to be pushed northward across the Plains.
We then have a southward plunge of the jet stream, or trough, across the West, which will eventually pivot into the Central Plains. Troughs like this generally bring severe weather.
Because of the high pressure system across the East and the slow-moving nature of this trough, severe weather may hit many of the same areas for days.
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
