Bowl projections: Early picks for each college football postseason game, including CFP field

As spring practice across college football nears full swing, it’s time for a borderline futile experiment — 2026 bowl projections for every game, from mid-December Group of Six pairings through New Year’s, punctuated by the College Football Playoff. Half of the 12-team bracket last fall was made up of first-time participants, spiking parity that enhanced the sport for fans.

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The Peach, Fiesta, Rose and Cotton Bowls hold playoff quarterfinal designations for next season, while the Orange and Sugar Bowls will host the semifinals. Add the additional 34 non-playoff games, excluding the now-defunct LA Bowl, and 40 total matchups will unfold next fall.

Teams we’re expecting to return to bowl eligibility after missing out last season include Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech and UCLA. North Carolina is another thanks to Bill Belichick’s offseason shakeup in his quarterback room and a schedule conducive to success.

While not all tie-ins have been determined yet, former Pac-12 programs are designated for Pac-12 bowls for one final season, which means Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington are eligible for the Alamo, Independence, Holiday, Las Vegas, and Sun Bowls along with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.

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Onto our picks for the 78 total bowl teams and where they’ll play in 2026 …

Group of Six appetizers

• Cure Bowl: East Carolina vs. Boise State
• Armed Forces: Air Force vs. James Madison
• Hawaii Bowl: South Florida vs. Hawaii
• Salute to Veterans Bowl: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina
• 68Ventures Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisiana Tech
• Xbox Bowl: Delaware vs. Georgia Southern
• Myrtle Beach Bowl: Akron vs. Western Michigan
• Boca Raton Bowl: Tulane vs. Jacksonville State
• Potato Bowl: San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio)
• Frisco Bowl: North Texas vs. Missouri State
• New Orleans Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Kennesaw State
• New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico vs. FIU
• Arizona Bowl: UNLV vs. Buffalo

More on our CFP pick from the Group of Six in a bit, but expect another representative to come out of the American, unless Dan Mullen and UNLV make noise out of the Mountain West with former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold taking over offensively. The Rebels have a couple of quality-win opportunities early and will have the deepest roster within their conference after signing the top-rated class in the G6 ranks.

Power Four tie-ins

• First Responder Bowl: Cincinnati vs. North Carolina 
• Gasparilla Bowl: Auburn vs. Virginia
• Rate Bowl: Kansas State vs. Wisconsin
• GameAboveSports Bowl: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan
• Fenway Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Tulane
• Pinstripe Bowl: NC State vs. Nebraska
• Military Bowl: Navy vs. Pittsburgh
• Texas Bowl: TCU vs. South Carolina
• Independence Bowl: Arizona vs. Army
• Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Kentucky
• Sun Bowl: Utah vs. SMU
• Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Illinois vs. Florida State
• Liberty Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma State
• Music City Bowl: Missouri vs. Iowa
• Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Tennessee

Pop-Tarts Bowl

The pick: Houston vs. Clemson

From four wins to 10 in only two seasons with the Cougars, Willie Fritz has his sights set on a Big 12 Championship Game appearance at Houston in 2026. The Pop-Tarts Bowl has grabbed the league’s runner-up each of the past two years, and that scenario may unfold again. Getting Dabo Swinney and the Tigers would be a draw for organizers since Clemson has played in Orlando only once in the last decade (2021) in a postseason setting.

Holiday Bowl

The pick: Washington vs. Virginia Tech

One of the Big Ten’s former Pac-12 teams eligible for the Holiday tie-in, Washington’s ceiling this fall is around eight wins, given the brutality of the slate. No team nationally faces a tougher final two weeks of the season (Indiana, at Oregon), and we’re projecting that will affect various bowl scenarios. James Franklin should get off to a quick start at Virginia Tech within the ACC and will have the Hokies competing very soon near the top of the conference. 

Gator Bowl

The pick: Oklahoma vs. Louisville

Pay attention to Louisville next season. Jeff Brohm has a roster he believes can scale the mountain in the ACC and potentially seize the program’s first playoff appearance. The Sooners are coming off a breakthrough finish and surrounded returning quarterback John Mateer with weapons this offseason in the passing game. Oklahoma and Louisville have only met twice, the last meeting in 1999, one year before the Sooners were crowned national champions under coaching legend Bob Stoops.

Alamo Bowl

The pick: BYU vs. UCLA

Nico Iamaleava and Bob Chesney could be an ideal match for the Bruins, leading to vast, program-wide improvements in 2026. Buy low on UCLA’s expected progress under its new regime with a clear path to bowl eligibility if this 41-member portal class can be impactful. BYU came up one win short of getting to the CFP last season and brings back the bulk of its lineup, including star tailback LJ Martin.

ReliaQuest Bowl

The pick: Texas A&M vs. Penn State

Back to the postseason for the Nittany Lions to punctuate Matt Campbell’s first season as coach. However, the other team in this Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in Tampa would be disappointed. With Marcel Reed returning at quarterback, the Aggies are coming off their first CFP appearance but fail to possess schedule favorability this time around. After only meeting two ranked opponents during SEC play in 2025, Texas A&M could play as many as five this fall.

Citrus Bowl

The pick: Alabama vs. Michigan

Taking the field with a new offense in 2026, Alabama has more questions than answers at this time. Kalen DeBoer faces pressure to win big in his third campaign, and the Crimson Tide should be one of a couple SEC teams vying for the league’s fourth — and we project, final — spot in the playoff. The Wolverines played in Orlando during last year’s postseason but should be the Citrus Bowl’s prime selection once again as the Big Ten’s highest-ranked team not in the CFP.

Power Four teams who missed the preseason bowl projections cut: Arkansas, Baylor, Boston College, California, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Stanford, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia, UCF, Vanderbilt

College Football Playoff picks

Quarterfinals 

First round

A couple of significant changes from our post-transfer portal initial playoff projection iteration this offseason include the inclusion of USC as a first-time CFP entry and Ole Miss, following the return of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. We’ve also moved Notre Dame from the No. 2 seed to No. 4, with the expectation that a single loss to Miami during the regular season would be enough for a first-round bye, but behind projected conference champions Texas and Indiana.

The current final at-large pick is USC, which got the nod over Michigan, Texas A&M and a few others. If the Trojans can get to a midseason open date at 5-1 or better, opportunities down the stretch against Ohio State and Indiana will serve as spotlight games for Lincoln Riley and the selection committee.

Ohio State, as the No. 8 seed this time around, means the Buckeyes will take a couple of losses during the regular season. Their schedule is the Big Ten’s most daunting. Depending on where Indiana and Texas fall in the preseason AP Top 25, no other program in the country has two road games against potentially the nation’s two best teams next season. 

Narrowly missing a first-round bye this time around is playoff returnee Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are the overwhelming frontrunner to repeat in the Big 12 as league champions with the addition of Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby and other impact starters from the portal. In the 12-5 game, the Red Raiders are projected to play the Memphis Tigers, who would be making their first playoff appearance as champions of a wide-open American.