BP predicts higher oil and gas demand, suggesting world will not hit 2050 net zero target | BP

BP has increased its forecasts for the demand for oil and gas, suggesting that the zero -net zero target for 2050 will not be achieved and will highlight a slowdown from the transition to clean energy.

The annual report on the annual prospects of the energy company estimated that oil consumption is on the right track to reach 83 million barrels per day in 2050, an increase of 8% compared to its previous estimate of 77 million barrels per day.

The current energy transition trajectory means that natural gas demand could reach 4,806 cubic meters per year in 2050, said BP, up 1.6% compared to its previous estimate of 4,729 cubic meters.

To achieve the overall net zero objectives by 2050, the drop in oil demand should occur earlier, and with greater intensity, falling at around 85 million barrels per day by 2035 and around 35 million barrels by 2050, said BP.

The world currently consumes around 100 million barrels per day of oil. BP said it expects oil demand to peak at 103 million barrels per day in 2030, five years later than expected.

Spencer Dale, the chief economist of the BP, added that geopolitical tensions, such as war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and the growing use of trade rates had intensified national energy security.

“For some, this can mean reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and accelerating the transition to greater electrification, powered by an inner energy with a low carbon content,” he said. “We can start to see the emergence of” electrostats “.”

However, the report noted that it could also give rise to an increased preference for the energy produced at the national level rather than important.

The prospects have been published while the Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband, examines the means that the government could encourage drilling in the North Sea without breaking a promise of manifesto not to grant new licenses on new parts of the British bed.

Despite rapid growth in renewable energies, oil should always remain the greatest source of primary global energy supply for most of the following two decades, to 30% in 2035, down slightly compared to its current share.

Renewable energies should increase, from 10% of primary energy supply in 2023 to 15% in 2035, said BP, and should only exceed oil towards the late 2040s.

BP also found that “the more the energy system remains on its current path, the more difficult it will be to stay in a 2C carbon budget”, because emissions continue to increase.

The carbon budget is the amount of CO2 which can still be issued by humanity while limiting the global temperature increases to 2c. BP modeling has revealed that, on the current trajectory, cumulative carbon emissions will exceed this limit in the early 2040s. “This increases the risk that a period of prolonged delay can increase the economic and social cost of remaining within a 2C budget,” he said.

BP has attracted the anger of environmental activists in recent months after the abandonment of green targets in favor of oil and gas production.

The green strategy was established by its previous managing director, Bernard Looney, who was appointed by the outgoing president, Helge Lund, in 2020 to transform the company into an integrated energy company. However, the transition was undermined by an increase in world oil and gas prices, as well as by the departure of shock from Looney in 2023.

Looney’s successor, Murray Auchincloss, stated a “fundamental reset” this year after the Elliott Management militants’ hedge fund has amassed several billion pounds in the company in the midst of an increasing dissatisfaction of investors on his slow stock market.

BP’s prospects provide that the production of wind and solar energy will respond to more than 80% of the increase in electricity demand by 2035, half of this occurring in China.

The second world economy is also its greatest source of carbon dioxide. This week, Beijing announced its intention to reduce its emissions between 7% and 10% of their peak by 2035, although this reduction is much lower than the 30% reduction that some experts have argued.