Incoming! 1,300-pound NASA satellite will crash to Earth on March 10

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A large NASA satellite will crash into Earth on Tuesday March 10 after nearly 14 years in orbit, according to experts. The spacecraft in question is the 1,323-pound (600-kilogram) Van Allen A probe, launched in August 2012 with its twin, the Van Allen B probe, to study the radiation belts around the Earth for which they are named. Both spacecraft were deactivated in 2019 and the Van Allen A probe’s time outside Earth is now almost over. As of Monday afternoon (March 9), the US Space Force predicted that the satellite would return Earth’s atmosphere Tuesday at 7:45 p.m. EDT (11:45 p.m. GMT), give or take 24 hours.

“NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up during its journey through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry,” NASA officials wrote in a statement. Monday update. “The risk of injury to anyone on Earth is low – about 1 in 4,200.” This low risk of injury – around 0.02% – takes into account that water covers around 70% of the Earth’s surface. So any parts that survive re-entry will likely crash into the open sea, not land in or around a city. The Space Force’s estimated reentry time is just that: an estimate. It will be updated in the coming hours as more and better data arrives.

The Van Allen Probes – originally called the Radiation Belt Storm Probes – were launched into a highly elliptical orbit, which took them up to 18,900 miles (30,415 kilometers) away from Earth and up to 384 miles (618 km) closer. The mission was supposed to last only two years, but the spacecraft managed to continue operating until July 2019 (probe B) and October 2019 (probe A). They gathered data that scientists and mission planners still analyze today. “By examining archived data from the mission, scientists are studying the radiation belts surrounding Earth, which are key to predicting how solar activity impacts satellites, astronauts and even systems on Earth such as communications, navigation and power grids,” NASA officials said in the same statement. “By observing these dynamic regions, the Van Allen probes have helped improve predictions of space weather events and their potential consequences. “Both probes were expected to remain in Earth orbit until 2034. However, the sun has been active unexpectedly in recent years, causing our planet’s atmosphere to expand and frictional drag on orbiting satellites to increase. Such effects likely also shortened the Van Allen B probe’s time in space, but less dramatically than that of its twin. Probe B is not expected to return until 2030, according to NASA.