NFL offseason storylines: Pro Bowler trades, the draft and some big quarterback moves | NFL

Who will be the No. 2 pick in the draft?

Barring a gas mask situation, we know who the No. 1 pick in the draft will be. The Raiders need a viable long-term solution at quarterback after Geno Smith went out last year. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, a Heisman Trophy winner and national champion, is the top quarterback on the board and will be the first named to be called up on April 23. After Mendoza, the real intrigue begins.

The Jets hold the second pick. No other quarterbacks are being considered to crack the top 10, giving the Jets a choice in one of the dynamic defensive players at the top of the class. Names considered: Ohio State’s Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs, Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. and Texas Tech’s David Bailey.

The Jets could deviate from the consensus and go for a player in the bulk receiver class or trade out of the pick. But the selection will probably come from one of these four names. In a slim class, all four are certified blue-chippers, but they are not without flaws.

Reese is the most dynamic player of the quartet. A hybrid linebacker/edge-rusher, Reese moves differently. He has the physical tools to make a Micah Parsons or Abdul Carter-type transition to the edge full-time, but he played his best ball in college when flying as a linebacker. In the modern game, with mobile and scalable defenses, he can be a defensive weapon regardless of where he lines up. But if the Jets view him exclusively as a linebacker, they’ll likely overlook Reese for a true passer. After all, Reese wasn’t even the best linebacker on his own college team.

Downs, a safety, will force a similar decision. Pound for pound, he is the best player in the draft. Yet even as the sport has evolved to emphasize hybrid defenders, safeties have been diminished in the draft. Perhaps the impact of Kyle Hamilton, Jalen Pitre and Brian Branch will change the Jets’ way of thinking. But if Downs is selected No. 2 overall, it would be the highest draft spot for a safety since Eric Turner went second in 1991.

Bailey and Bain fit the traditional mold. They are explosive advanced hunters with unteachable first step speed. Bailey’s game is juice-based, but he’s not refined as a passer. Bain plays with more intelligence and power, a requirement at the next level. But he found himself caught in the now annual debate over full competition.

The Jets’ choice is to take a better player at what management considers a non-premium position, gamble on Reese and figure out his position later, or gamble on Bailey or Bain to become dominant passers.

Where will Malik Willis sign?

Willis is the most intriguing free agent available this cycle. He has only started three games over the last two seasons and only six games over his four-year career. But he’s expected to make at least $30 million annually when free agency opens next week.

Every team that needs a quarterback is going in circles. After the successful resurrections of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones, Willis is the next man up. The former Titans third-round pick entered the NFL as an efficient runner, but undercooked as a passer. But over the past two seasons, as Green Bay’s backup QB, Willis has shown incredible growth. As a pure runner, Willis remains as explosive as any quarterback in the league. But he also showed development as a passer when asked to replace Jordan Love. Willis has the arm talent to make every throw, tearing up heaters on the field and applying touch everywhere else. Where he was once panicked in the pocket, he now displays composure. It was not an easy job either. Willis ran Matt LaFleur’s offense, one of the most complex systems in the league, without missing a beat.

However, this is a tiny sample; Willis has thrown fewer than 100 attempts over the past two seasons combined and has only six career passing touchdowns. But the flashs were breathtaking. Potential 26-year-old franchise starters are rarely available on the open market. And that should be enough to land him a $100 million contract. He could be the next Matt Flynn, but teams will bet on his potential, especially considering this year’s quarterback draft.

The Cardinals, Dolphins and Steelers are the favorites. New Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur is the brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. There would be schematic continuity for Willis, and the junior LaFleur would have inside information on the quarterback’s development. The Dolphins’ new brain trust is also filled with former Packers. General manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley came from Green Bay this offseason. They have a relationship with Willis and will know how much of his growth was real and how much of it was manufactured by the Packers coaching staff. But the Dolphins will need to understand Tua Tagovailoa’s contract situation before they can make a move, with the team looking at $90 million in dead money if they release their former first-round pick.

The Steelers should be at the front of the queue. They have a young, talented offensive line and more firepower than they could have shown with Aaron Rodgers at the helm last year. Bringing back Rodgers is the current, uninspiring plan. Allowing Rodgers to retire and hoping Willis is the real deal is the best path forward. Mike McCarthy, for all his faults as a head coach, is an exceptional quarterback developer. You don’t hire him to try to recapture the magic of Rodgers at 42; you hire him to try to unlock the next Rodgers.

The quarterback carousel

Willis will be the first domino to fall. But there will be plenty of big names and rehab projects in the market. Kirk Cousins ​​​​is already looking for work. The Cardinals will release Kyler Murray. Tagovailoa is in Miami. Smith might still have one last act in him. With a watered down draft class, all four will have a chance to start somewhere next season.

The most intriguing candidate, however, is Anthony Richardson. With the Colts ready to franchise and extend Jones, Richardson, the team’s former first-round pick, is available for a low-cost trade.

Richardson, 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, is ultra-athletic, but he has struggled to find consistency as a passer, command an NFL offense or stay healthy. He missed much of his time in the pros due to injuries, including fracturing his orbital bone last season, which hampered his development.

The Vikings make the most sense for Richardson. Head coach Kevin O’Connell was a fan when Richardson was coming out of the draft and made it a point to contact him last preseason after losing his starting job to Jones. “Remember something: You’re a bad guy,” O’Connell told Richardson. “And you’re going to be starting in this league for a long time. I still believe in you.”

Minnesota has the means, the need and the right environment to find out if Richardson can ever become a competent starter. They might decide to bring in a veteran like Cousins ​​to compete with or support JJ McCarthy. But if they’ve already decided that McCarthy isn’t the long-term solution, it would be wise to throw a dart at Richardson.

Prepare for a multitude of transactions

This season’s free agent class is light on star talent and heavy on starters. It’s similar to the draft class, which is deep at certain positions but lacks high-powered talent.

Immediate game changers will have to come via trades. Last year it was Micah Parsons. This year the big name is Maxx Crosby. The Raiders have publicly stated they want to keep Crosby, but the 28-year-old has told the team he wants to opt out. The stumbling block is the asking price. The Parsons and Quinnen Williams trades over the past year have set the threshold: teams want multiple draft picks and a starting-caliber player in return. Who is ready to increase costs?

Money won’t be a barrier, but a potential problem could be Crosby’s age. He’ll only be 29 next season, but 30 is the age at which passers start to decline. And Crosby has logged 300 more snaps than any other passer in the league since 2021. Crosby is in his prime right now, but teams may be reluctant to hand over multiple draft picks for a player who is reaching the end of his prime.

The Buccaneers, Patriots, 49ers and Bears are the favorites. Finding a price that suits both parties is tricky, however. The Bucs, for example, could offer a first-round pick, a third-round pick and either Calijah Kancey or Luke Goedeke. But the Niners and Patriots cannot add similar players to any package, which would require them to offer two first-round picks. Crosby is one of the best passers in the league. It’s worth the price. But the Patriots have had so many draft duds that they can’t afford to offer multiple first-round picks for another expensive veteran.

After Crosby, all eyes are on AJ Brown. Brown is coming off a strange season with the Eagles. There have been internal tensions all year. Snap after snap, you didn’t know what you were getting. At times he looked like the superstar receiver he is. Other times, he looked like he’d rather be somewhere else. Philly is saying all the right things in public about keeping Brown, but it seems clear that his time with the Eagles is over.

Brown will be 29 at the start of the new season and is under contract for three more years. If the Eagles trade him this offseason, they’ll take in $40 million in dead money. That put their asking price somewhere around a first-round pick. more a young player. Thanks to his connections with Mike Vrabel, New England was always considered Brown’s preferred destination. If not the Patriots, then the Chiefs and Bills are potential landing spots. Both suitors can likely stomach the high asking price of pairing an All-Pro receiver with Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.

And it’s not just Crosby and Brown. DJ Moore, Brian Thomas Jr, Mac Jones, Nick Herbig, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Trent McDuffie could all be on the move. Given who is available in free agency, this is going to be a juicy trade market.