Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, odds, spread: Christmas ‘Thursday Night Football’ picks from proven model

The 2025 NFL Christmas schedule concludes with an AFC West “Thursday Night Football” battle between teams in a surprising position as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos. The Broncos (12-3) lead the entire AFC and are chasing a top seed and a bye into the NFL playoffs. Kansas City, meanwhile, was eliminated from the playoffs. Kansas City is signing Chris Oladokun at quarterback after losing Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew to knee injuries in back-to-back weeks. Chiefs LB Nick Bolton (illness) is listed as questionable.

Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. The latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds favor Denver by 13.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the over/under total points scored is 38.5, an increase of 2 points from the opener at 36.5. Denver is -1,064 on the money line (risk $1,064 to win $100). Before making any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, costs well over $7,000 for $100 players among the NFL’s top-rated picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 with a 53-37 record on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anyone following him NFL betting chooses to sports betting and on betting sites, returns could have been high.

Now, the model has set its sights on the Chiefs versus the Broncos. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for the Broncos vs. Chiefs:

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs haven’t been this big of an underdog since the 2021 season, so that’s a huge number of points for the Chiefs to score, especially at home. Kansas City has been decimated by quarterback injuries, but still has the power to play tight end Travis Kelce, defensive lineman Chris Jones, wide receiver Xavier Worthy and others. Even in the midst of a losing season, they will be highly motivated to avoid a blowout at the hands of their division rivals in the national spotlight. Denver is just 2-5 against the spread on the road and has only two double-digit wins this season. The Broncos are also coming off a poor performance against the Jaguars, losing 34-20 despite being 3.5-point favorites in this Week 16 matchup. Find out which team to support at SportsLine.

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver has more to play for as the Broncos have the inside track for the top seed on the AFC side in the NFL playoff bracket. The Broncos already beat the Chiefs 22-19 last month, and that was back when Kansas City had Mahomes and was still in contention, so a much bigger margin could be at stake in this one. The Chiefs are just 5-10 overall this season against the spread. They are also 1-7 ATS against quality opponents (teams that have won 55% or more of games) and 0-7 ATS against teams giving up fewer than 21 points per game. Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in scoring defense (19.7 points per game), fourth in the NFL in total defense (291.6 points per game) and leads the league in total sacks (63) by a wide margin, making life extremely difficult for a quarterback with virtually no experience. Find out which team to support on SportsLine.

How to make picks between the Chiefs and Broncos

SportsLine’s model has simulated the Broncos vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and is under the total, projecting a combined 36 points. It also indicates that one side of the gap hits 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who does the Broncos win against the Chiefs, and which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump to, all from the advanced model that has ended up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.