‘City killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with ‘bullet-like’ meteors if it hits the moon in 2032
New simulations reveal that the infamous “City Killer” Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could shower the earth with “ball -shaped” debris if it strikes the moon in seven years, potentially triggering a catchy meteor shower – and endangering the satellites that orbit our planet.
2024 years old is a potentially dangerous asteroid measuring approximately 200 feet (60 meters) in diameter, which makes it large enough for Erase a large urban area If he had to strike front land. It was discovered for the first time in December 2024 but made the headlines earlier this year when scientists predicted that there was a chance could crush the earth on December 22, 2032. The chances of a collision culminated at 3.1% in February, which was enough for invite NASA to study it widely. However, a later analysis revealed There is no chance of having an impact on our planet.
But in April, the researchers realized that, although the land is no longer in the shooting line, the Rock space could still hit the moon. The chances of such a collision have increased slowly but regularly, and more recently jumped 4.3% earlier this month. Experts will probably know the final probability by 2028, when the asteroid will make its next close approach to our planet.
In a new study, downloaded on June 12 on the preparation server arxivThe researchers have directed computer simulations to model what a lunar impact might look like. The team estimated that up to 220 million pounds (100 million kilograms) of material could be ejected from the lunar surface. If 2024 years hit the Earth -oriented side of the Moon – which is about a chance of 50/50 – up to 10% of these debris could be drawn by the gravity of the earth over the following days, scientists wrote.
2024 years old would be the biggest space rock to hit the moon in “at least 5,000 years”, the main author of the study Paul WiegertAn expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario, Canada, who also has a lot studied the asteroid “God of chaos” Who will pass beyond Earth in 2029, told French News Site AFP. The impact would be “comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of liberated energy,” he added.
In relation: “Just the tip of the iceberg”: why risky asteroids like 2024 years bringing down the earth for decades to come
It is important to note that the new simulations (visible below) were created before the chances of a lunar impact went from 3.8% to 4.3% on June 16, which slightly increases the chances that this scenario takes place. But it is still far from a certainty. The results of the new study have not yet been evaluated by peers.
One of the potential debris fragments is unlikely to pose a risk for people on the surface of the planet. Instead, we can be treated with a “spectacular” meteor shower like capricious rock fragments burn in the earth’s atmosphere, which could last several days and be seen by people around the world, said Weigert.
But while we will almost certainly be safe in the field of any potential shower of lunar meteors, our space infrastructure could be threatened. The quantity of debris that could potentially be taken from the earth makes around 1,000 times more likely that our satellites can be struck by a meteor. And by 2032, the number of spacecrafts in orbit around our planet is should increase considerably.
“A rock the size of a centimeter traveling tens of thousands of meters per second looks a lot like a bullet,” said Weiger. Such an object could easily eliminate a satellite or cause critical damage to uninhabitial space stations, such as Tiangong station in China. (The international space station should be Declited by 2030.)
If the chances of a lunar impact increase more in the coming years, government agencies can make the decision to try to divert the asteroid price to protect the space assets from the earth. The asteroid would be a “good target” to test our planetary defense capacities, Weigert said. “I’m sure it will be considered.”
NASA has already demonstrated its ability to redirect the dangerous asteroids in 2022, when it diverted the trajectory of asteroid dimorphos by slam the dartbell. 2024 years is only half the size of this particular space rock.
However, if we wait too long, it can become “dangerous” to try to modify the trajectory of space rock, because a bad decision could put it on a potentially catastrophic collision course with the earth, said Weiger.
Some experts also fear that the Cups offered at the NASA budget by the Trump administration could make it more difficult to monitor dangerous asteroidsLike 2024, in the future.
