How the College Football Playoff would view Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin

If No. 7 Ole Miss beats Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday to finish its regular season at 11-1, the Rebels will be headed to the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history as one of the selection committee’s seven at-large picks.

They deserved it, even if it means taking the field for the first round without the coach who helped them get there.

Don’t buy the doomsday scenarios suggesting Lane Kiffin’s potential departure to LSU will keep Ole Miss out of the 12-team bracket. Although this is a new “data point,” according to committee chair Hunter Yurachek. An 11-win SEC team is not written off.

It would be unfair to penalize players after three great months. The reward is a playoff appearance.

“We haven’t had a discussion about Ole Miss and their coach,” Yurachek said, while acknowledging that could factor into the rankings if Kiffin leaves. “It was all about Oregon and their performance against USC. Their schedule continues to grow. The committee was waiting for them to get a signature win.”

Kiffin deflects the spotlight and energizes his players before the widely projected conclusion that he’s on his way out. Although his offensive acumen was remarkable — and he schematically set transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss up for tremendous success — he didn’t throw a touchdown pass, make a tackle or run to the end zone.

“They make the plays, not me,” Kiffin said during an appearance on ESPN last week. “All this success, all this credit and all that kind of stuff, it’s because of the players and the assistant coaches who put it all together and made it all happen.”

This covers all the bases in describing Ole Miss as one of the “best teams” in the country, which is the committee’s mission during deliberations. However, Ole Miss’ standings could be affected by Kiffin’s departure, a source close to the committee told CBS Sports last week.

Among the four principles the committee uses to divide otherwise comparable teams, “other relevant factors” may include “the unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or will likely affect its performance in the playoffs.”

This could be seen as negative for the rebels.

Florida State’s precedent was set in 2023 when the committee ruled out the undefeated Seminoles after Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury.

“I feel like they’re not nuclear like FSU,” the source said.

The final voting process includes seven rounds of voting. Members first select a group of six teams to evaluate, then sort them into groups of four over four rounds before completing the final three rounds in groups of three. In the second round of voting, the four teams ranked 5 to 8 – seeded from the first round at home – are determined. This is where a possible Kiffin departure could come into play.

Ole Miss won’t jump to No. 5 Texas Tech or No. 6 Oregon if those two win. No. 8 Oklahoma could strengthen its case to edge out the Rebels if it stifles bowl-bound LSU — a common opponent for both.

The intrigue thickens if Ole Miss loses at Mississippi State and joins the logjam of 10-win teams in the general mix. Here’s a look at both scenarios for the Rebels, based on the information we’ve received and what could unfold.

If Ole Miss beats Mississippi State

• A source close to the committee says the Rebels can punch their ticket to the playoffs in Starkville with a win, although the standings could be affected if Kiffin subsequently leaves and takes his coordinators with him. That concern becomes moot if Ole Miss announces Saturday that Kiffin has signed an extension — the first-round home game is assured.

If Ole Miss loses at Mississippi State

Final screening

• Regardless of Kiffin’s final decision, we expect the Rebels to find a spot in the 12-team bracket with a win in the Egg Bowl. Continuing the hypotheticals here, Oregon beating Washington on the road would ensure the Ducks are ahead of Ole Miss in the final rankings and the Rebels could fall further down the top 10 if Alabama topples Auburn and then beats Texas A&M in the SEC championship game. We project final seed for a first round home game to go down to Notre Dame (10-2) and Ole Miss (11-1).