Cop30 draft text omits mention of fossil fuel phase-out roadmap | Cop30

A new draft text on the results of the Cop30 climate negotiations has been published and contains no mention of a phase-out of fossil fuels, although countries supporting such action have threatened to block any deal without it.

The Guardian revealed on Thursday evening that at least 29 countries in favor of phasing out fossil fuels at the climate summit had sent a letter to Brazil’s COP presidency threatening to block any deal that did not include such a commitment, in a significant escalation of tensions during the crucial negotiations. The leaked letter demanded that the road map be included in the outcome of the negotiations, which are due to end on Friday but are expected to continue into the weekend.

An option to begin the process of developing a potential roadmap for the “transition away from fossil fuels” was included in the first draft of a potential outcome of the two weeks of negotiations, published on Tuesday. But early Friday morning, a “mutirão» A text was published by the presidency which contained no mention of the roadmap, nor any mention of the term “fossil fuels”.

It was not immediately clear how countries would respond to the proposal, but the Guardian understands that Brazil has come under pressure from some oil states – including Saudi Arabia, Russia and some major fossil fuel consumers including India – to omit the potential resolution.

Some of the countries opposed to the road map had threatened to withdraw from the negotiations on Thursday, before a fire broke out in part of the conference center near the delegations’ offices and negotiations were suspended for more than six hours.

A letter to the presidency seen by the Guardian shows that many governments in favor of a road map have defined it as a “red line” for negotiations.

It reads: “We cannot support an outcome that does not include a road map for implementing a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels. This expectation is shared by a large majority of Parties, as well as by the science and people who closely monitor our work. The world expects this COP to demonstrate continuity and progress after the Global Stocktaking. Anything less would inevitably be seen as a step backwards.”

The global stocktake refers to the historic decision taken at Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, which established for the first time a commitment by all countries to “move away from fossil fuels”, but set no timetable for the transition or any measures to achieve it.

Since signing this commitment, certain countries – mainly Saudi Arabia – have tried to call it into question. In 2024, during the Cop29 negotiations in Azerbaijan, an attempt to reconfirm the commitment failed in the face of opposition.

This year, countries supporting the phase-out took a different approach. Some have started to develop proposals for a forum in which all countries could participate, to discuss a possible roadmap for the transition. This would not require any country to commit to a firm deadline for phasing out and would allow all countries to choose their own policies and pathways. The roadmap would not be completed at this Cop, but it would take at least a year or more of work at future Cops to be fully articulated.

More than 80 countries have joined the initiative and held a press conference on Tuesday to announce their plans.

But it was too much for countries that still oppose such a commitment, led by some members of a group known as the “like-minded developing countries,” a vague grouping that includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran and Bolivia.

The Guardian understands that the signatories to the letter in favor of phasing out fossil fuels are: Austria, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Guatemala, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Marshall Islands, Mexico, Monaco, Netherlands, Panama, Palau, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and Vanuatu.

Irene Vélez Torres, Colombia’s environment minister, told the Guardian: “The letter was published after the presidency presented a take-it-or-leave-it text that we believe is insufficient for the level of ambition and implementation that this COP must achieve – particularly with regard to the need, clearly supported by science and by people around the world, for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.

“The success of this Cop cannot be measured by the adoption of a text at all costs. The real success of this Cop lies in the quality of the result. Adopting a weak or empty text would be a sign of a failure of climate multilateralism and a failure for future generations, who deserve a livable planet.”

Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, said: “It is clear that a growing group will not leave Belém without an ambitious comprehensive agreement based on four cornerstones: money for adaptation, better quality and accountability in climate finance, a clear focus on tackling the biggest sources of climate pollution – fossil fuels and deforestation – and a commitment to drive it all with a just transition.

She added: “The question is whether the Brazilian presidency will choose to listen to them, with time running out. »

The negotiations, which lasted a fortnight in Belém, were due to end on Friday evening, but were delayed by the fire – which caused no injuries but damage was caused to the venue – and are expected to continue until the weekend.

As negotiations reach their final hours, the row over the transition away from fossil fuels is likely to dominate, but other issues also remain to be resolved, including whether countries’ national climate plans are too weak to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris agreement, and questions of finance, trade and transparency, and how much money developing countries will receive for help adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis.