Cuban leaders signal concessions to appease Trump, but also ensure political survival

MEXICO CITY — For more than six decades, communist Cuba thwarted every destabilizing measure Washington aimed at — assassination plots, a trade embargo, sabotage, travel bans and, most notoriously, the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, when Fidel Castro’s revolution was still young and the Cold War raged.

Today, many people are wondering: is the death knell of the Cuban revolution finally tolling?

And is President Trump on track to achieve a goal — overthrowing the island’s communist leaders — that eluded John F. Kennedy and successive presidents?

Trump has repeatedly said Cuba is next in his sights, following its ongoing war with Iran and the January overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

But many experts warn that predictions of the end of communist rule have proven illusory.

A poster of the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro reads “Death to the Invader” in Havana.

(Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images)

“A lot of people have lost their jerseys betting on the end of these guys over the last 67 years, so I wouldn’t go that far,” said Jorge Castañeda, Mexico’s former foreign minister. “But the only way [Cuba’s government] can save themselves is by doing whatever Trump and the people of Miami want them to do economically, in exchange for maintaining political power.”

It was oil – particularly Trump’s de facto energy blockade – that finally forced Havana’s entrenched leaders to the negotiating table with its long-time foe across the Florida Strait.

On Friday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed on national television that Havana was engaged in secret talks with the Trump administration.

Underscoring the gravity of the moment, Díaz-Canel stressed that the negotiations were led by him and “the historic leader of our revolution,” Raúl Castro, Fidel’s nonagenarian younger brother, who died in 2016.

Díaz-Canel’s remarks masked what was, for supporters of a revolution celebrated by the global left, a painful reality.

“Cuba does not negotiate out of conviction, but out of asphyxiation,” wrote Stephanie Henaro, a Mexican analyst, on X. “Regimes do not sit down with their historical enemies when they are strong. »

To justify the bilateral negotiations, the Cuban president cited the country’s energy collapse, noting that some regions remained without electricity for more than 30 hours.

Long praised for its free education and health systems, Cuba sees its schools and hospitals closed due to lack of electricity. The national waiting list for non-life-threatening procedures has almost reached 100,000, including more than 11,000 children, the government says.

Cuba, which imports 60% of its oil, has not received any fuel deliveries for three months, Díaz-Canel said.

Once U.S. forces took Maduro to a New York prison, Trump cut off oil shipments from Venezuela — which under socialist rule had long supplied crude to his ideological ally.

Trump has forced other countries, including Mexico, to stop sending oil to the island. He also pressured countries to expel the cadre of Cuban doctors who were a pillar of the health system in much of the Americas, while providing Havana with much-needed cash.

And with many Latin American countries shifting to the right in recent years, Cuba no longer enjoys the support it once enjoyed.

People at a private convenience store in Havana watch Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel speak on television Friday.

(Ramon Espinosa / Associated Press)

The island is experiencing its worst days since the fall in 1991 of the Soviet Union, Havana’s loyal patron. The Communist Party survived this blow – and survived a “special period” of austerity that lasted almost a decade after losing support from Moscow. Yet during this special time, adults lost an average of 12 to 20 pounds, according to estimates.

In recent weeks, furious Havana residents have expressed their displeasure over the outages in nightly crescendos of pots and pans. Scattered reports of violent anti-government protests have emerged, despite tight control by security services.

“We are at the limit: the situation is critical and precarious,” Yaima Sardiñas, a manicurist and mother of three, said by telephone from Havana. “During the special period, yes, there were power cuts, but you could always find rice, maybe meat. Now it’s almost impossible.”

“These days,” adds Sardiñas, 42, “we see unfortunate people in the streets, rummaging through trash cans. This didn’t happen during the special period.”

When Díaz-Canel unveiled the bilateral negotiations, the tone was different from his recent denunciations of Washington’s “politics of stifling” and his vows of “creative resistance” to Trump’s bullying.

Discussions will likely focus on an economic and political overhaul. But broad reforms would require transforming a deeply entrenched command-and-control system that, while flawed, has lasted 67 years, despite relentless pressure from Washington.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio – the Cuban-American who is Trump’s point man on Cuba – has blamed the island’s leaders for the current dire situation, not the US blockade.

“The humanitarian crisis is spiraling out of control because Cubans don’t know how to run an economy,” Rubio said in Florida last month.

Others say such comments minimize the consequences of the oil blockade.

“The Trump regime was successful in crushing the economy,” said Robin Lauren Derby, a UCLA historian who follows Cuba.

Transforming Cuba’s largely state-run system into a haven for private business — and a welcoming destination for Cuban-American entrepreneurs in Florida — involves displacing powerful players in Cuba’s military-industrial complex, which runs much of the economy.

Rubio spoke of a gradual transition in Cuba, and even Trump — who called on Iranians to take to the streets once the United States and Israel began bombing Tehran — did not predict a full-scale revolt.

Speculation has focused on a Venezuelan-style scenario in which the current leadership would somehow be sidelined in favor of a Trump-friendly replacement.

But many experts see few parallels with Venezuela, which, unlike Cuba, has a recent history of free markets and opposition parties, while lacking Cuba’s pervasive security architecture. And after generations of “resistance,” Cubans have an inherent contempt for the country’s “imperialist” antagonist.

“Cuba will not be a march like Venezuela,” Derby said. “The issue of sovereignty really means something to Cubans. »

In his comments, Díaz-Canel alluded to resistance to political change. The talks will take place, he said, with “respect for the political systems of both states, as well as the sovereignty and self-determination of our government.”

Children play during a school activity in a Havana park last week.

(Ramon Espinosa / Associated Press)

Cuba will likely be open to an expanded private sector role and offer U.S. companies preferential access, said Ricardo Torres, an economist at American University. Potentially more problematic will be calls for compensation for American businesses and individuals – many in South Florida – whose property was expropriated after the revolution.

Another key factor is Florida’s Cuban-American population. A crucial base for the Republican Party, they will likely oppose keeping the current government infrastructure in place, Venezuela-style. Cuban exiles demanded multi-party elections, freedom of expression, the release of political prisoners and other reforms.

“If Trump and Rubio betray Miami, they could be in a lot of trouble,” Castañeda said.

On the other hand, the Cuban government, very weakened, has few cards to play.

“Cuba entered these negotiations in a very weak position,” Torres said. “They will have to make concessions.”

There are already some signs. Last week, Havana announced the release of 51 prisoners “in a spirit of goodwill and close and fluid relations with the Vatican.”

The Vatican — which helped broker the negotiations that led to the U.S.-Cuba thaw during the Obama administration — played a similar go-between role with Trump and Havana.

On the U.S. side, some predict Trump will agree to open travel to the island, which is key to revitalizing the moribund tourism economy. Power outages and lack of jet fuel have decimated tourism, a key source of income.

A return of foreign visitors would be a boon for many, including Bruno Díaz, 56, a father of three in Havana who makes a living as a taxi driver and musician for tourism. He hasn’t worked in weeks.

“We are in such a delicate situation – with people going hungry and many shortages – that any news of change gives us hope,” Díaz said following the announcement of the US-Cuban negotiations.

“We just hope it’s not just words and that we see real change soon. Because people can’t take it anymore.”

McDonnell and Linthicum reported from Mexico, Ceballos from Washington. Special envoy Cecilia Sánchez Vidal in Mexico contributed to this report.