‘All Made Sense’: Democrats Won Shutdown Messaging War Even With Deal In Place, Analysts Say

The government shutdown, which lasted nearly six weeks, helped Democrats gain ground across the country, with voters largely blaming Republicans — the party that fought to end it — for its devastating effects, political analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The Senate advanced a deal to end the shutdown on Sunday, thanks to new support from five Democrats — who broke with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer after voting with him and the vast majority of the party’s caucus 14 consecutive times to extend the shutdown. Just five days before the group of lawmakers changed positions, Democratic candidates won several key elections, including in Virginia, New Jersey and New York.

Republican strategist and former Trump White House official Mike McKenna told DCNF that the Republican Party was “hurt by the shutdown,” which he called a “winnable event” for the Democratic Party. He said Senate Democrats’ strategy of continuing the shutdown and resisting the expiration of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies was a political ploy that ultimately worked in that party’s favor. (RELATED: Jake Tapper Is Amazed at How Democrats Convinced Voter Shutdown Was the GOP’s Fault)

“It was a political issue. Democrats wanted to bring attention to health care,” McKenna said. “They succeeded. Are we going to have a separate vote on this? We are doing it. Are the Republicans going to win this separate vote? History would tell you no. We are not winning the ACA votes.”

The strategist said the deal, which included a promise to hold a Senate vote to extend the expiring subsidies, “looks like a victory” for Democrats, who “have blunted Republican momentum” and now have a chance to save the ACA appropriations.

An NBC News poll conducted in late October and released two days before Election Day found that a majority of voters, 52 percent, blamed President Donald Trump or congressional Republicans for the shutdown, while 42 percent blamed congressional Democrats.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 16: U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (Democrat of New York) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (Democrat of New York) speak to reporters at the United States Capitol on October 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

“So it all made sense to Democrats,” McKenna told DCNF. “And folding at that point also makes sense, because it’s kind of like, ‘Look, you know, let’s just sell the stock, put it in the bank and leave here, right? We’ve had a good run.'”

“If you’re a Democrat, you think for 40 days the Republicans are a little confused and unable to get things done in Congress, that’s not a problem. That’s a good thing,” he added. “But as it is [the shutdown has] past, the two problems that started to really affect people, SNAP [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program] and the FAA [Federal Aviation Administration]it became unbearable.

SNAP benefits – which 42 million Americans accept for food assistance – dried up on November 1, 32 days after the shutdown began. The FAA announced Friday that it would reduce air travel due to unpaid work by air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration agents during the shutdown. The lack of funding has led to thousands of flight delays and cancellations as well as the temporary shutdown of traffic at major U.S. airports.

“And you know, the sensible guys in the Senate Democratic caucus came to the conclusion, ‘Hey, it’s been great. It’s fun, but if we don’t turn it off now, in about a week, people are going to start blaming us, too,'” McKenna said, adding that the Nov. 4 election was a factor that caused some Democrats to stop holding out.

Kenneth Rapoza, senior analyst at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, told DCNF that Democrats’ shutdown talk likely helped the party score big victories in the Nov. 4 runoff in Virginia, a state with a high percentage of federal workers affected by the lack of funding. He added, however, that the shutdown had minimal effect on racing in other states like New Jersey and New York.

“I think in a state like Virginia, the average worker who is connected to the government, or knows someone who is connected to the government, would easily blame Trump for the shutdown,” Rapoza said. “I don’t think that would be the case in New Jersey or in the election [New York City mayor-elect Zohran] Mamdani.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA – NOVEMBER 04: Democratic candidate for Virginia governor, former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger celebrates as she takes the stage during her election night rally at the Greater Richmond Convention Center on November 4, 2025 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Rapoza said laid-off and unemployed federal workers in the Washington, D.C. metro area, who reliably vote for Democrats, had a reason to go to the polls to vote for Virginia’s Democratic governor-elect, Abigail Spanberger — who easily won her election by double digits, outperforming most pre-election polls.

“So I think the shutdown in Virginia probably helped it [Spanberger] perhaps winning more than some expected. But I don’t think the shutdown really helped New Jersey, and certainly not Mamdani,” the analyst said. “The people who blamed Republicans for the shutdown were probably all Democrats anyway, and were they going to vote or not vote? Who knows? Apparently, they were motivated to vote, perhaps because of the confinement.

According to a CNN poll conducted on November 4, more than six in 10 voters in households with a federal employee supported Spanberger.

Notably, Virginia’s two Democratic senators split on Sunday’s deal to end the shutdown, with Sen. Tim Kaine supporting the deal and Sen. Mark Warner voting with the majority of his party to oppose it. Warner is up for re-election in 2026 while Kaine will not face voters until 2030.

Veteran political consultant Hank Sheinkopf told DCNF on Wednesday – the day after the election – that the shutdown was a “drag on Republicans.”

Asked if most Nov. 4 voters blame Trump and the Republican Party for the shutdown, Sheinkopf said “absolutely.”

“It was definitely a shutdown, and if you look at the economic numbers, they’re not good. It was just a wipeout, which shouldn’t have happened,” Sheinkopf said.

The consultant said Democratic momentum can continue through the 2026 midterms “unless economic conditions are addressed.”

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