DC Conventional Wisdom Goes Down to Defeat in State after State
Elections are difficult to predict. But even with that, some of the theoretical “surprises” we’re seeing tonight are less surprises than a measure of the Republican Party’s dominance over current news stories. People were looking for a surprise in New Jersey. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin speculated that New Jersey could be becoming the next swing state. In fact, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) currently appears on track to crush Republican Jack Ciattarelli. A similar failure of conventional wisdom appears to be occurring in Virginia’s attorney general race. Many DC insiders had become convinced that a controversy over some excessive texts (not nothing, but close enough) had doomed his campaign. Just a few days ago, betting markets (which are indicators of conventional wisdom) gave his opponent Jason Miyares 3-to-1 odds of victory. Jones now appears to be on his way to a clear but low-profile victory by a margin of 3 to 4 percentage points.
These results are not very surprising. Democratic gubernatorial candidates might be expected to perform well in blue states, in a climate where the Republican president is deeply unpopular. In the Jones case, aside from the details of the story in the text, when one party is doing very well, it’s pretty rare for a story to convince voters to switch to the other party, even if people find the story troubling. If it’s not disqualifying, voters generally won’t be so easily distracted from the partisan message they’re trying to send.
The problem, again, is the power that Republican political narratives currently have over the elite political press. This has been the case for decades. I’ve often noticed how DC and the elite political press stay wired for the GOP, through periods of democracy. And Republican ascendancy. But it reached a real new level in 2025. And this explains these notional surprises mentioned above.
