Dealing with Iran’s nuclear program requires tricky diplomacy. But there’s low trust : NPR

Ari Shapiro, host:

President Trump says, after the attacks of us and Israeli against the Iranian nuclear program, it is now time for peace. Analysts say that there is a possibility that Iran has moved its uranium stocks before the United States send bombs that blew up the bunker. And facing all of this requires diplomacy at a time when few confidence in talks, as Michele Kelemen of NPR reports.

Michele Kelemen, Byline: President Trump calls for his magnificent military strike and says that the last thing on the spirit of Iran is now its nuclear program.

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President Donald Trump: they will have no enrichment, and they will not have a nuclear weapon, and they know it. They will move to a large commercial nation. You know, they are very good traders.

Kelemen: Iran reported that he wants to contain tensions, giving Qatar a head before hitting an American base there on Tuesday. But Suzanne Dimaggio of the Endowment of Carnegie for International Peace says that this difficult truce is not durable.

Suzanne Dimaggio: Telegraphies in the hope of preventing a climbing spiral is a dangerous and magical thought. There is no way to get out of this without diplomatic initiative.

Kelemen: Dimaggio was involved in what is called diplomacy of track II – unofficial relations with Iran and other countries to promote negotiations. While President Trump says that the American strikes destroyed Iran’s nuclear program, she says there are indications that Iran has moved parts.

Dimaggio: We do not know exactly where Iran’s nuclear equipment is located or where their advanced centrifuges are. They were apparently moved. This therefore gives Iran a certain lever effect at the negotiation table that he did not have before the American strikes.

Kelemen: Some Israeli legislators ring the alarm on this subject. Knesset member, Avigdor Lieberman, an Iranian hardliner, posted on social networks that there is nothing more dangerous than leaving an injured lion. This is how he referred to Iran. And he said that instead of unconditional surrender, as Trump initially demanded, the world has entered, quotes “difficult and tedious negotiations” with Ayatollah. At one point this week, Trump seemed to kiss Israel’s hopes for the change of diet in Iran, although he withdraws now. The nuclear non-proliferation expert Kelsey Davenport says that the regime change may not solve the problem.

Kelsey Davenport: In a case of regime change, if Iran is weakened, if it believes that it faces external threats, a new government may be more likely to make the decision to develop nuclear weapons in order to dissuade, you know, future attacks or territorial aggression.

Kelemen: Davenport is at Arms Control Association and supports nuclear diplomacy. Sara Haghdoosti, who heads a group called Win without war. She underlines that Trump withdrew from President Obama’s nuclear agreement in the first mandate, and this time he used the prospect of diplomacy to divert the attention of B-2 bombers led to Iran. She says it damages us credibility.

Sara Haghdoosti: The main reason why people come to the tables is to avoid war. And if it is not something that the United States can guarantee, it fundamentally undermines our position in the world.

Kelemen: Gulf states seem to try to enter this violation. It was Qatar who helped Trump organize a trembling truce. Davenport of the weapon control association claims that the countries of the region are interested in keeping things calm. And the nuclear landscape which is also changing there.

Davenport: Saudi Arabia plans to advance a civil nuclear program. The United Arab Emirates already have an established program. There are possibilities for collaborative nuclear activities that would add transparency to the Iranian program, would reduce the risks of proliferation.

Kelemen: But it requires delicate diplomacy at a time when there is little confidence on all sides.

Michele Kelemen, NPR News, the State Department.

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