Climate policy strengthens globally, despite unprecedented contestation in the US and Europe

As countries gather at COP30 in the Amazon, a new study from the University of Oxford provides the most detailed view yet of how different countries’ laws and regulations align or do not align with climate goals. The survey of climate policies in 37 countries (including the entire G20) was developed through voluntary partnerships with dozens of leading law firms around the world.

The Climate Policy Monitor is one of the outputs of the Oxford Climate Policy Hub., a research initiative based at the University of Oxford. It aims to strengthen the evidence base and capacity to advance effective, rigorous and equitable net-zero emissions regulation and policy.

The granular study of climate-related laws and regulations in 37 major countries, compiled by researchers at the University of Oxford and dozens of leading global law firms, provides the most detailed view yet of how climate policy is evolving in an era of unprecedented political contestation.

Since the last survey in 2024, new and strengthened climate policies have been put in place around the world, particularly in Asia and emerging markets.

At the same time, the Trump administration has backed away from climate policies in the United States and the EU has begun to revise or delay climate rules in areas such as corporate disclosure, although the outcome of this process remains uncertain.

Summary

• Overall, climate policies are strengthening. Across the 37 jurisdictions, policies moved closer to best practice in 82 cases and weakened in 42 cases,
• Developing countries are increasingly setting the pace for climate action,
• However, overall, policies remain insufficient to close the gap between goals and actions and prevent serious climate consequences.

Professor Hale adds: “The driver of climate policy has shifted to emerging economies. In some regulatory areas, such as rules requiring companies to disclose their emissions and other information related to climate change, countries in Africa and Latin America now demonstrate, on average, greater ambition than countries in Europe and North America.

“The US pushback is having a real impact, but the long-term trend toward transition remains increasingly clear, even in the face of unprecedented protest.”

However, overall, policies remain insufficient to close the persistent gap between goals and actions, and thus prevent catastrophic climate change.

As countries, businesses, and others continue to set climate goals – including a 9% increase in net-zero corporate emissions targets in the United States over the last year – global emissions also continue to rise.

“In four of the six policy areas examined by our study, fewer than five governments meet the key benchmarks for policy ambition. More worryingly, no jurisdiction has a sufficiently ambitious methane policy,” says Professor Hale.

“Governments need to adopt better climate rules, faster, to align their climate policies with the latest scientific advances,” says Dr. Wetzer. “As countries submit their final pledges under the Paris Agreement at COP30 in Belem in the Amazon, it is essential that they support the high-level goals with concrete regulations and policies to ensure achievement. »

The study is the second annual report from the Oxford Climate Policy Monitor, a public resource assessing the ambition, rigor, implementation and comprehensiveness of climate-related regulations based on more than 300 data points. It assesses national regulations in six key areas:

1. Carbon credits: policy tools establishing rules for the generation, use, trading and/or governance of carbon credits in voluntary and compliance markets.
2. Public procurement: rules that align public spending (which typically represents 10-15% of a country’s GDP and includes everything from vehicles to new hospitals) with governments’ climate goals.
3. Transition planning: rules that require companies to outline the steps they will take to align with climate goals
4. Methane: Policies to reduce methane emissions from fossil fuels and agricultural sources.
5. Climate-related disclosure: obligations on businesses and financial institutions to publish information about the risks they face from climate change, their contributions to the problem and/or the policies they have in place.
6. Green prudential rules: policy tools issued by central banks and/or financial regulators that establish rules or guidance on how financial risks arising from climate change should be identified, assessed, mitigated and/or monitored.