Democrats hold a key edge in the November elections: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the political officea newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Happy Monday! We hope that the Amazon Web Services outage didn’t ruin the start of your week.

We are now 15 days away from the November elections. In today’s edition, Ben Kamisar looks at the ad spending advantage Democrats have established in the most important races, while Bridget Bowman reports on how the party’s White House candidates are getting involved.

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—Adam Wollner

Democrats have an ad spending advantage in this year’s biggest elections

By Ben Kamisar

Democrats have something important in common in the three highest-profile elections coming up this November: an advantage in ad spending.

Money doesn’t buy everything in the countryside – otherwise the history books would be very different. But the data, according to ad tracking company AdImpact, tells a story about the state of each race.

California redistricting measure: Democratic-aligned groups have spent more than $66 million asking Californians to vote “Yes” on the measure to approve a new congressional map that could net the party up to five additional House seats.

The main ads feature what they call President Donald Trump’s “unprecedented power grab to steal congressional seats and rig the 2026 election” by pushing for new maps in Texas, Missouri and elsewhere.

The “no” side of the race is extraordinarily well-funded compared to most campaigns, but, with nearly $28 million spent so far on ads opposing redistricting efforts, it falls far below the “yes” side financially.

The “No” ads have attempted to portray Gov. Gavin Newsom as the bogeyman, arguing that the Democrat wants to steal power from the independent redistricting commission because he “wants the same politicians who failed in California to get their own safe seats and rig elections to help him become president.”

Governor of Virginia: Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s campaign has spent nearly $40 million on ads this year, more than double the more than $18 million that came from Republican Winsome Earle-Sears’ campaign. What’s particularly notable is that there hasn’t been a massive influx of Republican dollars, as there was in 2021, to close the gap this year.

Spanberger’s main ads focus narrowly on economic issues, linking Earle-Sears to Trump and arguing that both “raise the prices of everything.”

Meanwhile, Earle-Sears ads have attacked Spanberger over transgender policies in schools and, more recently, violent text messages sent a few years ago by Democratic candidate for attorney general Jay Jones.

Governor of New Jersey: Since the end of the primary election, Democrats have spent $41 million, compared to $29 million for the Republican Party. Outside groups are the two biggest spenders: $23 million from the Democratic-aligned Greater Garden State and $13 million from the GOP-aligned Restore NJ.

In terms of gubernatorial candidates, Republican Jack Ciattarelli leads in spending with $13 million, compared to $10.5 million for Democrat Mikie Sherrill.

There is also relative unanimity in advertising on the terrain over which both sides are fighting: the economy. All of the race’s major ads focus on various economic themes, battling rising electric bills, the policies that could make them worse, and which of the party’s tax policies would be most harmful.

Read more from Ben →

Potential 2028 presidential candidates hit the trail ahead of November elections

By Bridget Bowman

PARAMUS, NJ — As Detroit rapper Gmac Cash’s “Big Gretch” blared through the speakers of a union hall, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer entered the rally stage. But the Democrat was not campaigning in her home state.

Whitmer found herself in New Jersey Saturday morning, a little more than two weeks before voters choose their next governor, in one of two gubernatorial contests in the country this year.

“Some of you may know me as ‘Big Gretch,'” Whitmer said. “Some people call me ‘that woman from Michigan.’ However you know me, I’m damn happy to be here in the Garden State this morning.

The two-term governor then made her pitch for Rep. Mikie Sherrill to join the ranks of Democratic governors — a speech that also served as a potential preview of a pitch by Whitmer to lead the Democratic Party.

She is among possible presidential candidates campaigning in New Jersey and Virginia as Democrats try to chart a path forward after President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore also joined Sherrill over the weekend, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota asked Sherrill earlier this month. In Virginia, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is expected to appear Tuesday with former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, while Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear hit the campaign trail in the state last month.

There could be more before November 4. A spokesperson for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro told Politico that the governor is expected to campaign in neighboring New Jersey. A spokesperson for Shapiro did not respond to a request for comment on his plans.

“We usually bring people into the community where the community has requested that surrogate,” Sherill told reporters after a Sunday morning event with Moore in Newark, when asked if former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris would join her on the campaign trail.

Sherrill said “several people” had asked Moore to come to the state. She also noted that her campaign had received similar inquiries about Whitmer and Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat, New Jersey native and potential presidential candidate who was recently scheduled to campaign with Sherrill but was unable to attend the event. Sherrill said her campaign reached “several” potential surrogates.

Read more about Bridget →

📊 Dive into the data: Steve Kornacki explores how Trump’s surprising inroads into New Jersey’s traditionally nonwhite Democratic areas in 2024 have added an unpredictable variable to this year’s governor’s race.

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.

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