Dodgers 2026 win projection: Can L.A. match the hype?

PHOENIX — It’s never too early to be hyperbolic.

No major league team has won more than 116 games. The Dodgers had yet to play an exhibition game last spring when former Times columnist Dylan Hernández said they could win 120.

Not to be outdone, the Dodgers were a week into the season when Bill Plaschke published a column with this headline: “Who says the Dodgers can’t go 162-0?”

The Dodgers have won 93 games. They also won the World Series, becoming the first back-to-back champions in 25 years.

A week into spring training, the Dodgers are the only undefeated team.

Reality check: The Dodgers won’t win every game, but they play in a market where everyone expects them to win every game.

“They do it,” manager Dave Roberts said.

What would be a realistic number of victories?

“I don’t know what’s realistic,” he said. “We win a lot of games. Honestly, we showed last year that the regular season certainly matters, but at the end of the day you have to play your best baseball at the right time.”

In the Dodgers’ 13 postseason years, they won 100 games five times. In doing so, they reached the World Series once, losing to the cheating Houston Astros. In 2023, they have won exactly 100 regular season games and exactly zero in the playoffs.

It’s one of the eternal truths of baseball that wins and losses in spring training don’t matter.

“It’s always fun to win,” said Andrew Friedman, Dodgers president of baseball operations. “It’s always a lot more fun than losing. But a lot of spring training is, just not getting a call from our coach. Keep guys healthy.”

“That’s by far the biggest priority: getting guys ready for the season and keeping them healthy.”

Noah Miller runs the bases during a spring training game against the Angels on February 21.

(Ronaldo Bolanos/Los Angeles Times)

If winning in spring training isn’t predictive, it doesn’t matter either. For an organization that would rather prepare a pitcher for the postseason than dare to use him for 200 innings in the regular season and juggle a spot on the team all summer so that Kiké “Mr. October” Hernández can be available in the postseason, depth is essential.

“While there’s no direct correlation between that and how you’re going to perform in the regular season, I think it’s kind of an indicator of the depth you have,” Friedman said. “After three or four innings, there’s a line change and minor league players come in. I think being able to maintain a high level of play in those back innings speaks to the depth.”

Friedman is not a big fan of the Cactus League.

“It seems like a lot of spring training is just an inconvenience,” he said. “You’re just waiting for that phone call [from the trainer]. You do everything you can to avoid that phone call.

The advantage is on the business side. As of Thursday, tickets for Saturday’s exhibition game against the Chicago Cubs started at $97. The starters will probably play half the match. Shohei Ohtani is in Japan preparing for the World Baseball Classic.

So, to the point: it doesn’t matter that the Dodgers are undefeated in spring training, and they’ll probably win about 100 games. After all, they fixed their two glaring weaknesses by committing $300 million to All-Stars at the height of their careers: outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Edwin Díaz.

Baseball Prospectus projects the Dodgers to win 104 games. Fangraphs 99 Projects.

But it’s the season for hyperbole, so the Dodgers still have a chance to go 194-0 between the Cactus League and the regular season.

I had to ask Roberts how good he thought the Dodgers’ chances would be this season if they never lost.

He laughs.

“Pretty good,” he said.