Venezuela has limited options to respond to recent US seizure of sanctioned oil tanker

The Trump administration’s latest offensive against Venezuela, seizure of an oil tanker carrying U.S.-sanctioned oil, sparked predictable outrage from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government.

But behind the rhetorical fire, analysts say the regime has few practical means to fight back without doing even more damage to itself.

Experts say Maduro could target U.S. oil interests in Venezuela, but that would almost certainly inflict more pain on his own cash-starved regime than on the United States.

Maduro could also stop U.S. Chartered Deportation Flightsbut again, this would harm its own interests, experts believe.

MADURO’S FORCES FACE RENEWED REVIEW AS US TENSIONS INCREASE: ‘A FORTRESS BUILT ON SAND’

“Venezuelans are simply leaving the country because of the terrible conditions created by the regime,” said Connor Pfeiffer, Western Hemisphere analyst at FDD Action. “By bringing people back, even if they’re on U.S. charter deportation flights, it kind of contradicts that narrative.”

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could also halt U.S.-chartered deportation flights, but again that would harm his own interests, experts say. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)

Western oil companies have significantly reduced their presence in Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, in recent years due to sanctions.

But the American company Chevron still retains a license to operate there, provided that the Maduro regime does not profit financially from its operations. Instead, Chevron is giving Maduro half of its oil production as payment, according to multiple reports.

“Chevron’s operations in Venezuela continue in full compliance with the laws and regulations applicable to its activities, as well as the sanctions frameworks provided by the U.S. government,” a Chevron spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

Venezuelan crude imports have fallen to around 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 150,000 bpd in recent months, below the nearly 300,000 bpd seen under the previous oil licensing regime under the Biden administration. Most of Venezuela’s exports now go to Asia, with the bulk ultimately arriving in China via intermediaries, according to Kplr data.

Despite this flow of crude oil, analysts say the idea of ​​Caracas fighting back against Chevron is more powerful as a talking point than a viable policy option.

Venezuela accuses us of “piracy” after seizing a huge oil tanker

Closing or seizing the company’s operations would instantly cut off one of the few lifelines still fueling Venezuela’s declining oil sector. It would also risk triggering a rapid and politically difficult U.S. response, including a full restoration of the sanctions relief the regime has quietly relied on.

Newly released footage shows US forces securing a Venezuelan tanker. (@AGPamBondi via X)

Pfeiffer noted that Maduro’s government has been “very supportive of Chevron continuing to operate” because the deal provides tens of thousands of barrels of oil per day with minimal investment from the Venezuelan company Petróleos de Venezuela, SA. Other analysts say the reality severely limits Maduro’s room for maneuver: Any attack on Chevron would hit his own source of revenue first.

Another theoretical lever – military or maritime escalation – is widely considered even less credible. Venezuela has taken delivery of small, Iranian-built fast attack craft equipped with anti-ship missiles, a development that has fueled speculation that Maduro could threaten U.S. or allied ships.

But the Venezuelan navy suffers from years of maintenance failures and lacks the capacity to support operations against U.S. forces deployed in the Caribbean. Any aggressive measures at sea would almost certainly provoke a U.S. military response that the regime is unable to absorb.

Diplomatically, Caracas could suspend remaining channels with Washington or take legal action in U.S. courts or international forums. Yet previous efforts to challenge sanctions-related seizures have gone nowhere, and Venezuela’s relationships in the hemisphere offer limited leverage.

Regional bodies have little influence over U.S. sanctions legislation, and even governments sympathetic to Russia, China, or Iran are unlikely to intervene beyond critical statements. Beijing, now the main destination for Venezuelan crude, has economic interests at stake but few practical means to challenge U.S. coercive measures.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Absent direct military strikes, cracking down on sanctioned oil exports is one of the most powerful ways the United States can weaken the regime, according to Pfeiffer.

“It is one of its main sources of income that keeps the regime afloat.”