Don’t be surprised if … Lamar Jackson, Rashid Shaheed thrive down the stretch

Every week in the NFL is its own story – full of surprises, both positive and negative – and Fantasy Football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe going forward. Maybe we can help you. If any of these thoughts come true…don’t be surprised! NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats unless otherwise noted.

Shaheed, acquired from the New Orleans Saints at the trade deadline, averaged just 11.3 yards per catch with QBs Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough. Yawn, but everyone on the Saints, even the resurgent Chris Olave, was catching short passes. Shaheed averaged 11.6 fantasy points, with 83 receptions and 943 receiving yards. He was a reasonable, flexible option in the league who simply needed better quarterback play, and the good kind downstream targets.

All of this is starting to happen this week because – and say what you want about Darnold and whether you think he can continue to play at this level (he can, just like last season in Minnesota) – he throws a great deep pass, and the Seahawks want more. Saints QBs were not allowed to throw downfield. Darnold does it. Shaheed is a serious threat who averaged 17.5 yards per catch with Derek Carr last season. He may not have that volume, but he should have enough to make an impact.

Good for speedy rookie Tory Horton and the two touchdowns he scored against the Washington Commanders defense Sunday night, but the Seahawks weren’t using him much. He has 13 receptions in eight games, and you can’t maintain a touchdown production with so few chances. As for crafty veteran Cooper Kupp (hamstring), their skill sets don’t really match up, even if Kupp loses some. The awesome Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on track for 2,000 receiving yards, but his 36.8% target share is also pretty ridiculous. He’s going to take a hit here.

We don’t rate Shaheed as a WR3 option yet (the Seahawks play the Arizona Cardinals this week), but I think we will soon. All it takes is one deep pass converted into a touchdown to convince everyone. Shaheed should be Seattle’s No. 2 flex option for the remainder of the season, but that’s somewhat intentional. The Seahawks can’t run the football. Blame disappointing RBs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet if you must, but they have nowhere to run and less volume than last season. Darnold’s excellent season, racking up passing touchdowns and fantasy points, will continue.

Don’t be surprised if… Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. reverts to regular WR3/4 status in Week 10 and beyond.

Harrison had his best game Monday night against the thin Dallas Cowboys defense (of course, it’s so much better after the trade deadline. Don’t buy it.) and some think it happened because Kyler Murray (foot) was not the QB. Harrison made all the highlights of his touchdown because he embarrassed a Cowboys defender with a move, and Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb looked very impressed on the sideline. Hey, that was impressive. But it was also the cowboys. Harrison caught seven passes in the game. This is now his career high, in his 25th game. Seven receptions. Ja’Marr Chase does this at halftime.

Ultimately, like everyone else (and don’t pretend otherwise), we were all led to believe that Harrison, because of his dominance at Ohio State and his famous Hall of Fame WR as a father, would also dominate in the NFL. Maybe he will. Or maybe he dominated the Cowboys because they are terrible on defense. I realize this sounds negative. We all want to believe it, but there’s really no evidence Monday that signals a long-term change in production. Harrison caught two passes in each of the previous two games, and Murray wasn’t the QB.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been around for a long time, and while he starts again this week against Seattle, I still doubt that would happen if Murray were fully healthy. Brissett isn’t suddenly a fantastic play at 32 and with his sixth franchise, that’s as many seasons as he’s thrown six touchdown passes against the Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers and Cowboys. In other words, I’m not suddenly trading for Harrison in a fantasy as if a year and a half of ordinary play at WR3/4 (at best, really) was suddenly solved by Brissett as QB.

Don’t be surprised if… Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leads all players in fantasy points for the remainder of the season.

This really shouldn’t surprise anyone. After all, Jackson averaged 25.3 Fantasy points last season. Second among quarterbacks was Josh Allen with 22.3 points. Jackson missed three games recently with a hamstring injury, and he didn’t run much in the easy Week 9 win over the weak Miami Dolphins (14 rushing yards), but he made up for it with four touchdown passes. Some believe the Ravens want Jackson to play it safe and stay healthy, and throw more from the pocket leading up to the playoffs. That may be true, but we certainly don’t know because of this game.

Jackson didn’t really run as much in September, not to his usual standards, and he still scored over 26 fantasy points in each of the first three games. Defenses have to plan everything with him. I think the Ravens, with their schedule, qualify for the playoffs despite their 1-5 start. I think the Ravens, now healthier in the lineup, will also play better defense over the final couple of months, making their D/ST unit, rostered in 44.9% of leagues, vastly underrated. Look ahead. Invest in the Ravens.

Don’t be surprised if…Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs has been making investors happy and sad over the past two months

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Why Jahmyr Gibbs is Field Yates’ Week 9 Fantasy Loser

Field Yates reacts to Jahmyr Gibbs’ disappointing fantasy outing against the Vikings.

Some of us have openly focused on the fact that Gibbs hasn’t caught any passes, as he’s only had 19 over the last seven games, but the truth is that Gibbs has been much less efficient than last season. Don’t blame David Montgomery, my timeshare friend. He has two good fantasy games all season. Detroit is still sharing touches, but Gibbs just hasn’t come close to matching last season’s production, with the exception of Week 7 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

• 2024: 113.4 total yards per game on 17.7 touches, 20 total touchdowns, 21.3 points per game.

• 2025: 93.5 total yards per game on 17.7 touches, 7 total touchdowns (at pace of maybe 14), 18.2 points per game.

The Minnesota Vikings overwhelmed the Lions offensive line last week, taking a 27-24 decision, but I don’t see the Lions being held to the low number of 65 rushing yards in a game anytime soon. On the one hand, they can still play in the entirety of the NFC East, and three of those teams (Cowboys, Giants, Commanders) are disappointing defensively. Even the Eagles allow the 10th most fantasy points to running backs. The Lions need to establish their running game, and one presumes they will do a better job of getting receptions from Gibbs in open space. How can Gibbs be held to 12 touches like he was last week? This seems silly.

However, we must take a look at the month of December when the Lions will again face the Rams (week 15), the Steelers (week 16) and the Vikings (week 17). These are solid defenses that bother quarterbacks and restrict running backs, especially the Rams. It’s fair to appreciate Gibbs as he takes your fantasy teams to the playoffs, and you’re never going to have him in the actual playoffs, nor should you. You just might not like the results of the last few weeks before the Bears’ rematch in Week 18.

Oregon rookie Dillon Gabriel is averaging 4.9 yards per pass attempt, which is just horrible, and that’s why I passed on veteran WR Jerry Jeudy weeks ago and haven’t regretted it. It seems unlikely that the return of Cedric Tillman (hamstring) will help much. Maybe we can’t really blame Gabriel. He follows the advice as instructed and he barely has enough time to throw even these short passes. His main targets are usually his tight ends, which is fine unless you’re invested in Cleveland WRs. Gabriel averaged 7.8 fantasy points. That’s below struggling Tennessee Titans rookie Cam Ward, and well below longtime veterans such as Russell Wilson of the New York Giants and Jake Browning of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Why not give Sanders a chance? He threw the football on the field in college, didn’t he? Bailey Zappe is the current No. 2 QB, perhaps because Sanders has been dealing with back pain in recent weeks. Or maybe not. The Browns didn’t have to draft Sanders and all the drama surrounding him, but they also didn’t trade him this week. His numbers at Colorado were outstanding, but few predicted similar success in the NFL. He won games, but he didn’t always look like an NFL pro. At this point, none of that matters. The Browns are already losing. Try the next player.

Fantasy managers in standard 8- or 10-team formats might scoff at any talk of Browns QBs, but in SuperFlex and similar formats, literally every QB counts during bye weeks. There was a frenzy to add Houston Texans backup Davis Mills to one of my leagues this week, in case CJ Stroud (concussion) misses a game. Each The starting quarterback is active in a league somewhere, especially when Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Joe Flacco are bye.