Why gerrymandering might not be enough to save the GOP
At the request of President Donald Trump, Republicans are working to redistrict states across the country to consolidate their slim majority in the House. They know they cannot win the battle of ideas, which is why they intend to use their institutional advantages in all three houses of government to rig the system in their favor.
But the one thing they cannot do, despite their best efforts, is rig public opinion.
The fact is that Republican governance is inherently flawed. If your main argument is “the government is bad,” how can you run a truly good government?
A party confident in its standing with the public would not try to gerrymander seats in its favor. And a new one Quinnipiac University Survey shows how tough things could get for the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections.
The poll finds that 50% of registered voters want the Democratic Party to control the House if the election were held today. Meanwhile, 41% want the Republican Party to take control. Similarly, 52% of independent voters favor Democratic control, with 32% favoring Republicans and 16% unsure.
This is the first time Quinnipiac has asked this question this cycle. And even though he ignored it last time, it’s final survey 2022 showed a narrow GOP lead of 48% to 44% – and Republicans continued to win 50% of the national popular vote in the House, compared to 47% for the Democrats.
If next year is anything like that 9% Democratic advantage, it will be a landslide.
The poll also finds that Congressional approval is poor across the board: Just 26% approve of how Democrats are doing their jobs, while 35% approve of Republicans’ performance. But even in this climate, voters clearly prefer Democratic control to another mandate of MAGA chaos.
Regarding the government shutdownvoters narrowly blame Republicans more than Democrats, between 45% and 39%. But among independents, the situation is much less similar: 48% blame the Republicans and 32% the Democrats. The pattern repeats itself across all questions: Partisans are locked in, but influential voters are breaking away from the GOP.
Related | Swing-state GOP steals another House seat from Democrats
Next year’s elections will not be decided by the House GOP and its actions. This will be a referendum on Trump, and his influence will loom large over all of this.
Just 40% of voters approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, while just 38% approve of his handling of the economy — his lowest rating ever as president, according to Quinnipiac.
Yes, even lower than it was during the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump can take all the credit he wants a “peace deal” between Israel and Hamas, but most voters still disapprove of his leadership broadly and have little confidence in his ability to achieve lasting peace.
Ultimately, the fate of House Republicans is tied to that of Trump. And if these numbers hold, no amount of redistricting trickery will save them from a public that has already made up its mind.
