Earth Will Warm More Than Expected Due to Future Changes in Ozone, Study Suggests

Although the prohibition of ozone destructive gases such as CFC has helped the ozone layer to recover, when combined with increased air pollution, the impact of ozone could warm our planet 40% more than origin.

The ozone hole on Antarctica in 2020. Image credit: ESA.

“CFC and HCFC are greenhouse gases that warm the planet,” said Reading University Professor Bill Collins and his colleagues.

“Countries have banned these gases to save the ozone layer, expecting it to also help fight climate change.”

“But as the ozone layer heals, it creates more warming which cancels most of the climatic advantages of the elimination of CFCs and HCFC.”

“Countries that reduce air pollution will limit a certain ozone formation near the soil.”

“However, the ozone layer will continue to repair itself for decades regardless of air quality policies, creating inevitable warming.”

“Protection of the ozone layer remains crucial for human health and the prevention of skin cancer.”

“The ozone layer protects the earth from a dangerous ultraviolet radiation which can harm people, animals and plants.”

“However, research suggests that climatic policies must be updated to take into account the more important ozone warming effect.”

The authors used computer models to simulate how the atmosphere will change in the middle of the century.

The models followed a scenario with a low implementation of air pollution controls, but CFCs and HCFC are deleted as compulsory by the Montreal Protocol (1987).

The results show that stopping CFC and HCFC production – mainly to protect the ozone layer – offers less climatic benefits than that previously calculated.

From 2015 to 2050, ozone should cause 0.27 watts per square meter (WM^-2) additional warming.

This figure – which measures the amount of additional energy trapped per square meter of the earth surface – would make ozone the second largest contributor to future warming by 2050 after carbon dioxide (1.75 wm^-2 additional warming).

“Countries do the right thing by continuing to ban chemicals called CFC and HCFC which damage the ozone layer over the earth,” said Professor Collins.

“However, although it helps to repair the protective ozone layer, we found that this recovery in ozone will warm the planet more than we thought.”

“Atmospheric pollution of vehicles, factories and power plants also creates ozone near the soil, causing health problems and warming the planet.”

The results were published in the journal Atmospheric chemistry and physics.

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WJ Collins and al. 2025. Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: an inter-comparison of metrics and methods. Atmos. Chem. Check 25, 9031-9060; DOI: 10.5194 / ACP-25-9031-2025