Economic growth no longer linked to carbon emissions in most of the world, study finds | Fossil fuels
The once-rigid link between economic growth and carbon emissions is breaking down in the vast majority of countries around the world, according to a study released Friday ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Paris climate agreement.
The analysis, which highlights the effectiveness of governments’ strong climate policies, shows that this “decoupling” trend has accelerated since 2015 and is becoming particularly pronounced among the main emitters in the global south.
Countries representing 92% of the global economy have now decoupled consumption-related carbon emissions from GDP expansion, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) report.
Drawing on the latest global carbon budget data, the study finds that decoupling is now the norm in advanced economies, with 46% of global GDP in countries that have grown their economies while reducing their emissions, including Brazil, Colombia and Egypt. The most pronounced decouplings took place in the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland.
The dramatic change in China is more significant. The world’s largest emitter is significantly reducing its economic dependence on coal and other fossil fuels. Between 2015 and 2023, China’s consumption-related emissions increased by 24%, less than half the growth of its economy (more than 50%). Over the past 18 months, its emissions have plateaued and many analysts believe they may have peaked. If China can get over the hump, the rest of the world should follow.
In total, 21 countries have made progress over the past decade. These include Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, Egypt, Italy, Mexico and South Africa, all of which have managed to grow economically while reducing their emissions.
Twenty-two other countries successfully achieved decoupling in the decades before and after 2015. They include the United States, Japan, Canada, and most countries in the European Union.
Donald Trump tried to steer the United States in the opposite direction, but his first presidential term caused only a brief increase in emissions. Over most of the past two decades, U.S. emissions have declined, according to the report’s authors.
New Zealand, Latvia, Slovenia, Lithuania, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Togo and Cop29 host Azerbaijan all decoupled before 2015, but their growth has since become dependent on fossil fuels again.
The report highlights how international negotiations, such as UN COP meetings, have helped drive an energy transition, even if progress has so far failed to keep pace with the threat posed by human-caused global warming.
Previous analysis, carried out by the ECIU, shows that the growth in annual CO2 Emissions have slowed to 1.2% since 2015, compared to 18.4% in the decade before the Paris agreement.
This agreement, which was signed by almost 200 countries in 2015, included a commitment to limit heating to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This sent a strong signal to businesses and governments that they needed to find alternatives to the oil, gas and coal responsible for climate change.
As a result, the forecast for global warming at the end of the century has fallen from 4°C to 2.6°C. Despite this progress, the authors say faster action is needed over the next decade to stabilize the climate.
With emissions slowing, many analysts hope the peak could finally be in sight, which would mark the start of a crucial fall if the world is to keep global warming between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
John Lang, the author of the ECIU report, said: “I’m really encouraged. Looking back shows how much progress we’ve made over the last 10 years. The world is now in a preconditioning phase before a structural decline. We’re approaching a historic point where emissions start to fall. That’s super exciting.”
