College football betting: Updating the Heisman, national champion markets

Two weeks after the start of the university football season and the market spoke, but we still know nothing. The title ratings have changed, the Heisman boards move and some teams are quietly noise while others are already rushing.

There have been eruptions, upheavals and declaration victories, but nothing that seems definitive.

Are Oregon ducks real or simply lead an easy start? Do Clemson Tigers all deceive us? Can Oklahoma Sooners be taken seriously? And do the Bulldogs of Georgia show signs of concern? The photo begins to take shape, but the edges are always fuzzy.

The biggest movements and notable lines for the ratings of the national championship

Clemson +2200
Last week: +1300

Do we all just wrong Clemson? The Tigers opened the season as a top five darling at +900 to win the national title and Cade Klubnik sat down just at +900 for the Heisman. Two weeks later, the two derived at +2,200, and it seems that the market has completely lost confidence. A defeat of 17-10 against LSU made them go back, but even in a victory of 27-16 against Troy, they dragged 16-0 at one point. The offensive still lacks explosive games, the racing game does not bring its weight and the defense abandons the first tracks. Clemson is good, but after two weeks, the idea of ​​an elite feels questionable. Suddenly, their manageable schedule is starting to be a little more intimidating and a place of playoffs seems to be a request.

Oregon +1200
Last week: +1000

I’m not saying Oregon has all my attention, but the plot is starting to crawl. Two eruptions at home, 59-13 on the state of Montana and 69-3 on Oklahoma State, and yes, they are easy opponents, but the Ducks set up video game numbers. The ratings of the national title went from +1500 during the pre-season at +1200. Slowly and regularly, and people are starting to notice it. The balance is what stands out: more than 1,100 infraction yards through two games, separated between the passes and the soil and the zero reversals. This efficiency can travel, and that is why Penn State’s match later this month seems massive. In a quiet week for the title ratings, the Oregon is the one that makes noise quietly.

Another notable line moves from the week after 1 to the afternoon 2

Florida +7500
Last week: +3000

Florida’s fall on the market was fast and ugly. Gators have lost 18 points against USF and, looking towards the future, it is difficult to find victories. Their schedule is LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Georgie, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State. It’s brutal. It is not a bad defeat but a full season towards a downright nasty trend.

Georgie +650
Last week: +750

I would not yet rely on the panic button, but it is worth lifting a eyebrow. Georgia beat Austin Peay 28-6, but Gunner Stockton launched it 34 times against an opponent from the FCS. It seems … outside the script. Being up 14-3 at halftime also raises questions about pace and identity. That said, it’s week 2, and Kirby Smart tends to use these first games to tinker. For a team at the price of the favorite title, it is notable.

LSU +800
Last week: +900

Last week, I said that LSU was a “no” for me. Remains the same. The LSU offensive seems … unstable. The tigers did not establish the race, lacked explosive games and their conversion rate of the red zone was late, which means that the goals on the ground instead of the affected. Always a no.

The feeling seems to be that no one really knows who are still the real contenders in the title, and with a minimal line movement at all levels, the market essentially says that it needs more evidence before making great adjustments.

The greatest movements and the notable lines for the winner of Heisman

John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma +800
Last week: +1600

Mateer’s Heisman ratings made a massive jump, and that makes sense after Michigan’s victory, but I am not fully sold. Yes, it sets up figures; 270 yards by the pass, 74 yards on the ground and two affected affected affected against Michigan. And this dual threat capacity is exactly what voters like.

The challenge is sustainability. Oklahoma’s offensive currently depends on mating, with an average of only 5.5 yards per game with limited explosiveness outside of it. To stay in the race, he will need more high volume and high impact performance in marquee games. He jumps into the conversation, but is not locked up. Its dimensions are correlated with the odds of Oklahoma which are shortened from +4000 to +3500, but the Sooners are always long term for a reason. Oklahoma is not yet an overwhelming team. The defense was solid, but the offensive difficulties of Michigan helped.

The Sooners tend, but until we see Mateer and or against better competition, “Content to the title” and Heisman always feels premature.

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon +1400
Last week: +2000

Heisman Climb de Moore is one of the quieter but most important scenarios for two weeks. Its ratings went from +3000 to pre-season to +2000 after week 1 and now +1400, and the market buys quickly. There may be a reason for that.

Through two games, Moore was almost flawless: 34 out of 44 (77%) for 479 yards, 12.7 YPA, no interceptions, plus a balanced offense around him. Oregon is on average more than 550 yards and 64 points per game, and Moore had nothing to force.

The capture? He did not play anyone. The Montana State and Oklahoma State are not Penn State, and this match of September 27 could do or undo its Heisman race. If he shows the same efficiency and explosiveness in a “white or” environment, Moore’s dimensions could go to the first five. I have flashbacks on its 11 affected interceptions from its season 23 at the UCLA.

Consideration of bets: sit down, but keep an eye on the USF

The objective of this weekly play is to make a prediction in the long term either in the Heisman race, the winner of the national title or to make / miss the playoffs. The two teams that have my interest are the South Florida Bulls and Florida State Seminoles.

The USF is suddenly on radar after consecutive victories at the time. 25 Boisse State and then-no. 13 Florida, extending them to n ° 18 in the AP survey and triggering the first playoffs as one of the best groups of 5 candidates. Yes, the Bulls curriculum vitae is strong on paper, but the real test occurs on the road to Miami n ° 5 on Saturday, which will tell us how really they are.

Like outsiders at 17.5 points, if the USF covers but loses against Miami, he keeps the Bulls in the conversation in the playoffs but does not stimulate their case. Perhaps the best game right now is to support the USF as an oppressed against Miami if you believe that they are for real. However, I always have my hesitations.

These first weeks, you will probably find more value of support outsiders in individual clashes rather than binding your money on a low conviction. Bets are just as much on what you are not betting as you do. With so much uncertainty, it looks like a lower market for future; The prices evolve, but the conviction is low and the patience could be the smarter game until the real contenders separate themselves.