Embargo on economic data will lift when the shutdown ends
The economic data blackout is almost over. Almost.
The government shutdown, now in its 42nd day, has led to a self-imposed data embargo, as federal funding has dried up for agencies responsible for collecting and disseminating economic statistics. Frequent data releases have been slowed, forcing private sector sources to fill in the blanks with data that is not as comprehensive as the government’s.
But not for much longer. A bipartisan spending deal passed the Senate Monday night that would reopen the government until Jan. 31. The House is expected to quickly approve it within days of President Donald Trump signing it. Once that happens, the federal data blockade will be lifted.
For starters, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release either the September or October employment reports. The first should be released quickly once the federal government reopens. In 2013, the BLS released a report on delayed jobs three days after a 16-day shutdown ended.
For the October jobs report, it will either take several weeks to be released, if it is ever released at all. sees the light of day at all. Most BLS employees were furloughed during the shutdown and no data collection was conducted over the past month. These surveys will be sent to employers several weeks after they are usually received, which may mean they will not be as accurate.
The October inflation report also presents a significant challenge. BLS employees are responsible for collecting the price data that makes up the Consumer Price Index, released the second week of each month. Unless estimates are used, it is difficult to collect October prices several weeks after the fact.
“While the BLS can estimate missing data, it seems highly unlikely that the agency would want to go down this route,” said Michael Peppercorn, senior research strategist at Peppercorn. wrote in a blog post.
The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis was also forced to delay the release of third-quarter GDP growth, scheduled for October 30. A BNP Paribas research note estimates it could be released two weeks later if the government reopens by November 17.
