Ex-national security adviser John Bolton on Trump’s Iran goals : NPR

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

President Trump and his aides have set various goals for the war. Trump has talked about eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. He also talked about sinking their navy and stopping giving them support from militant groups. From the beginning, the president called on the Iranian people to prepare to rise up against their government soon. More recently, Trump has discussed plans to choose Iran’s next leader himself, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at one point set what appeared to be more limited war goals, destroying Iran’s missiles and their navy’s missile factories. Before all this started we had John Bolton on the show. He is President Trump’s former national security advisor. He is a longtime U.S. diplomat and has long supported efforts to change the regime in Iran. He told us it could work if Trump stayed out of it, so we called him back. Ambassador, welcome back.

JOHN BOLTON: Nice to be with you.

INSKEEP: In your opinion, is the United States doing this effectively?

BOLTON: Well, I’m increasingly worried because Trump’s goals aren’t really clear and they’ve done enough planning. I think we’ve talked before about the failure to prepare the American public for the need for regime change to eliminate the nuclear weapons program and for the threat of international terrorism that will not be eliminated until that regime disappears. He didn’t do that. He did not prepare the Congress. He did not inform the allies. And it is questionable whether he was effectively cooperating and helping the Iranian opposition. That’s what I said, I think, when we last spoke. Since then I have been very concerned that there are now signs that they haven’t thought about many other things. For example, there are reports that the White House was surprised by how quickly oil prices rose.

INSKEEP: Yeah.

BOLTON: And all I can say is I’m surprised they’re surprised. If they didn’t plan for this economically, politically and militarily, it would be a huge hole in planning. I fear that they apparently did not take the potential to exploit the Strait of Hormuz as seriously as they should have. Trump said a few days ago that the Iranian navy had been completely destroyed. And despite years of listening to this stuff, I should have known better. I actually believed it for a while. But now we learn that it was only yesterday that we destroyed 16 mine-laying ships. Of course, they have the ability to mine via drones flying over the strait and drop mines there.

INSKEEP: Yeah.

BOLTON: So I’m afraid now that that’s just not the case – that we just haven’t done any planning in advance. And I think there are other examples of not thinking about major issues like the strategic effect on Russia and China. I am in favor of a change of regime. So when I make these criticisms, I say it because I deeply fear that inadequate preparation, if that is the reality, could prevent the achievement of this goal.

INSKEEP: Yeah. Well, the president himself described that, and he downplayed it. He said it was a short term excursion. He said earlier in the week that this would end soon, a statement that moved markets in a positive direction. He also spoke of ultimate victory. He used the phrase unconditional surrender at one point. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was asked about this. Let’s hear what she said.

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KAROLINE LEAVITT: President Trump will determine when Iran is close to unconditional surrender, when it no longer poses a credible and direct threat to the United States of America and our allies.

INSKEEP: I’m trying to interpret that a little bit, Ambassador Bolton, and one way to read it is that the United States would continue to bomb as long as we think it feels good from the American point of view, is what I mean. But at some point, the United States stops. Would it be an acceptable outcome if the United States stopped tomorrow or next week?

BOLTON: No, because at this point, given what we see Iran doing – going after civilian targets in the Arab Gulf states, going after their oil infrastructure – if you leave this beast wounded, the existing regime in Tehran has an absolute guarantee that it will go back to building its nuclear weapons program, supporting international terrorism and doing everything it can to undermine not only Israel and the United States, but the Arabs across the Gulf. That’s… the whole point of this exercise, if it means anything, is not to mow the lawn and reduce the threat. Israel has done this repeatedly over the years, in various ways, with cyberattacks and assassinations in Iran.

INSKEEP: Of course.

BOLTON: This is about getting rid of what constitutes the real ultimate threat, which is the regime itself. If you stop before then, it will be Groundhog Day.

INSKEEP: Do you think it would be necessary to put troops on the ground, American troops on the ground, which is what it would normally take to change a regime, for sure?

BOLTON: No, well, I don’t think it would normally be necessary to change your diet. I don’t think it’s necessary here. The aim of the military attacks, in addition to annihilating the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, is to destabilize the regime at the top, eliminate a large part of its leaders and pit those responsible for the regime against others. When they see the regime collapse and understand the potential for the whole thing to sink, a number of them will decide that they would prefer not to go down with the ship. And that’s why we need the opposition – not just to demonstrate in the streets, but to work, for example, with officials, officers of the regular army – not the Revolutionary Guards but the conventional army – who would be ready to say: we are not going to let the country be destroyed by these fanatics, the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards. In other words, much of this work should have been done in advance. I don’t know if that’s the case. But for sure, we have to do it now.

INSKEEP: I want to ask you about the consequences that you think the administration doesn’t seem to have anticipated: the increase in oil prices, the possibility of exploiting the Strait of Hormuz, which could potentially create a catastrophe that would disrupt energy markets for a very long period of time. These things were predictable, as you point out, and they are happening today, and the worst could happen. Is it possible that this effort was not worth it, given that Iran was already on the defensive, already weakened before the start?

BOLTON: Well, it’s been weakened, but its behavior for at least 30 years has been to pursue nuclear weapons and support international terrorism. The regime is led by religious fanatics. The new supreme leader might be worse than his father. And all these other problems are very threatening symptoms, but the real problem is the diet. And until you eliminate the diet, you will have to deal with the other symptoms.

INSKEEP: John Bolton is a former national security adviser to President Trump during his first term and a longtime U.S. diplomat. Ambassador, it’s a pleasure to speak with you again. Thank you so much.

BOLTON: Thanks for inviting me.

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