Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2026: Busts by proven MLB model that called Spencer Strider’s disappointing year
The Braves saw their seven-year playoff streak come to an end last year as a number of their players underperformed. Players like Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Jurickson Profar, who have now been suspended for the entire season after missing half of last season, all ended up fading from Fantasy Baseball, whether due to injury, suspension, ineffectiveness or a combination. As anyone involved in the 2026 Fantasy Baseball drafts knows, putting together a winning team will be as much about picking your top Fantasy Baseball picks as it will be about avoiding picking 2026 Fantasy Baseball busts.
Others like Mookie Betts, JT Realmuto, Nolan Arenado, Zac Gallen, and Devin Williams have also fallen behind years and are not living up to their Fantasy baseball ADP. So, you’re faced with a decision as to whether last year was the start of a trend that they will bounce back and be worth considering in the 2026 Fantasy baseball drafts. Before finalizing your preparation for the 2026 Fantasy baseball draft, be sure to check out the 2026 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
Last season, SportsLine’s projection model identified several of Fantasy baseball’s best sleepers, blowouts and busts, including Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider.
Strider led MLB in wins (20) and strikeouts (281) in 2023 before missing most of 2024 due to injury. He returned last year, but the model predicted he would struggle to return to his pre-injury form and wouldn’t live up to his lofty Fantasy baseball ADP (97.81). Strider was the SP30 in terms of average draft position, but SportsLine barely had him ranked among the top 75 starting pitchers in its rankings.
The result: Strider went 7-14, with a 4.45 ERA and not even half as many strikeouts (131) as his dominant 2023 season. He also missed more than a month of action due to another injury and ended up barely among the top 100 starting pitchers in Fantasy points, much closer to SportsLine’s projection of SP74 rather than his ADP of SP30. Anyone who has followed the model’s advice and avoided Strider in their fantasy baseball drafts has avoided a major headache in their fantasy baseball lineups.
The SportsLine model is designed by the same people who made the projections for the three major fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2026 Fantasy Baseball rankings and cheat sheets on SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy Baseball sleepers, blowouts and busts well before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated several times a day.
Every time new MLB news is released on MLB free agency signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the SportsLine team updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
Top 2026 Fantasy Baseball Busts
One of the 2026 Fantasy baseball busts, the model is fading: Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski. Called up in June of last year, the rookie became the first pitcher in more than 60 years to record 11 hitless innings to start his career, then made MLB history by becoming an All-Star after just five starts. He had the fifth-highest average fastball velocity in the majors (99.3 mph) during his 66 regular-season innings, then posted a microscopic 1.50 ERA in 12 postseason innings.
However, between the All-Star Game and the playoffs, Misiorowski looked like every bit of a novice on the mound. He had a 6.03 ERA over his last eight starts as hitters adjusted to his arsenal, while Misiorowski failed to make adjustments to hitters. Many Fantasy owners are overly influenced by his hot start, as his #107 Fantasy baseball ADP places him among the top 30 starters. However, SportsLine’s model barely has him ranked among the top 100 starting pitchers, making Misiorowski a player to avoid in the 2026 Fantasy baseball drafts.
Another of fantasy baseball’s model 2026 drafts won’t live up to their ADP: Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso. After seven years in Queens, Alonso left the Mets for Baltimore in the offseason, following a season with 38 home runs, 126 RBIs and an .871 OPS. He averages going in the fourth round of the 2026 Fantasy baseball drafts with an average draft position of 32.
However, Alonso’s stats from last year should be a bit concerning. His batting average on balls in play (BAbip) was a career-high .305, indicating that he was a little lucky and could regress toward the average. Additionally, his home run rate (5.4%) was the second lowest of his career, while his walk rate (8.6%) was the lowest in his seven seasons. Alonso’s greatest strength is his home run power, but the two lowest HR rates of his career have come in the past two seasons as the 31-year-old may be in decline. The model places Alonso tied with Michael Busch in its 2026 Fantasy baseball rankings, but Alonso is drafted seven rounds earlier on average. See more busts at SportsLine.
How to Find the Proven Fantasy Baseball 2026 Rankings
SportsLine’s model also drops a surprising ace who goes off the board in the sixth round on average in early 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. The model predicts this All-Star won’t live up to his high idiot status and end up outside the top 30 at his position. Avoiding it until later could be the difference between winning your championship or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So, which 2026 Fantasy baseball busts should you avoid in your upcoming drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get the 2026 Fantasy Baseball rankings for every position, all from the model that predicted Spencer Strider’s downfall in 2025, and find out.
