For Iranians abroad, no single vision for their homeland’s future
Like many members of the Iranian-American diaspora, Kowsar Gowhari closely followed the American-Israeli military intervention in his native country.
Since the attacks began on February 28, many of his relatives have fled Tehran, the national capital, to take refuge in cities further south. Greeted by aunts, uncles and cousins, they gather in the evening to break the Ramadan fast, watch the latest war news and discuss the future of their country.
“Some people think this government is finished,” said Ms. Gowhari, a lawyer who lives and works in Rockville, Maryland. “My parents, what they really want is for Iran to remain independent and free from foreign intervention. They can be critical of the government, but they don’t want [President] Trump to destroy this place and set up a puppet government.”
Why we wrote this
President Donald Trump has urged the Iranians to “take control” of the country once the bombing stops. But among Iranians living abroad, the U.S.-Israel war is raising nuanced and divergent views on what kind of government it should have.
Here in the United States, Ms. Gowhari says, activists from various factions are attacking each other on social media, intimidating merchants and restaurateurs to promote their political agenda and driving divisions within a community that she says should instead come together.
On Monday morning, Iran’s Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei – the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – as the country’s new supreme leader. A worthy cleric, like his father, the new leader is described as “confrontational” and with close ties to the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, disinclined to negotiate with the United States or Israel.
Iran’s 10-day war – which has left around 1,300 people dead so far – has exposed deep divisions within the Iranian diaspora community. Crowds of Iranian Americans danced in the streets of Los Angeles to celebrate the news of the death of former Iranian leader Ali Khamenei on March 1, while others expressed concern over military intervention by two foreign powers, the United States and Israel. These disagreements are expected to complicate any effort to reach consensus on Iran’s future government. But the diaspora seems to mostly agree on one point: Iran has reached a critical point.
“Iran has always been a melting pot of diverse opinions, and after the protests and brutal crackdown, everyone is on the same page, left, right and center,” says Mohamad Machine-Chian, a researcher and author at the University of Pittsburgh who grew up in Iran. “Forty years ago, people thought the Islamic revolution was the way to go. Forty years later, they can see the disaster that was created.”
While the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was a charismatic leader capable of moving people through his speech, his successor Khamenei built his power differently. “It created a loyalty market,” says Mr. Machine-Chian. “People would support him, but their cooperation always comes at a price. »
Iran’s oil wealth has given Khamenei powerful influence, but as U.S. sanctions have taken hold, Khamenei’s power base has become tenuous at best. Mr Machine-Chian says the murdered leader’s son will inherit a significantly reduced power structure. “Without money, people may not stay loyal for long. Things can change very quickly.”
For the estimated 750,000 members of the Iranian diaspora living in the United States, the war brought both the prospect of change and the fear of personal loss. One of the largest groups supports Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah who was overthrown by Islamist and left-wing protesters in 1979.
In recent remarks, Mr. Pahlavi praised the US-Israeli military operation and called on Europe to provide its own support.
“The military operation is a humanitarian rescue mission and will save many lives,” he said. “Europe’s decision to ban the IRGC is welcome, but it must now go further and support our transition plan to rebuild Iran. »
But no political voice speaks on behalf of the Iranian diaspora, at least for the moment. Some Iranians want gentle reform of the current regime of Islamic clerics, while others want a completely secular government. Some have pushed for armed revolt against the Islamic regime, while others favor negotiation.
Jamal Abdi, president of the Iranian-American National Council and member of the diaspora, advocates peaceful negotiations to encourage the Islamic Republic to moderate its policies. “We are very opposed to war,” he said, adding: “The only way for Iran to have a government that represents the people is for the Iranian people to decide for themselves.” »
Courtesy of Kevin Amirehsani
But he acknowledges that with the brutal crackdown on street protests in 2025, Khamenei’s regime has made clear that it views dissent as an existential threat. Estimates vary on the number of protesters arrested and executed between December 2025 and January 2026, but it is the deadliest period of repression in decades.
Kevin Amirehsani, an economist who works in Colorado state government, is a second-generation Iranian American. He followed the news closely and argued in favor of diplomatic engagement with Iran, rather than military pressure, which he believes can only strengthen the Iranian regime’s resolve. Since the start of the war, he says, his parents have been watching over his aunts, uncles and cousins in Tehran and north of the capital.
Like Ms. Gowhari, Mr. Amirehsani says the regime’s repression of dissent and the war that followed have polarized debate within the Iranian-American community. As a member of Mr. Abdi’s NIAC, he helped redouble efforts to push the U.S. government to seek nonviolent solutions, while others are drawn to the banner of monarchists.
“General reviews online and in person are growing rapidly,” he says. But as Israeli and U.S. bombing campaigns expanded from Tehran to dozens of other cities in Iran, he saw many Iranian Americans who were strong supporters of military intervention go silent online. “After the incessant bombings in the streets and after the attack on this girls’ school [on Feb. 28]it started to hit home.
For Ms. Gowhari, the war puts her in a difficult position as an American of Iranian origin. On the one hand, she desperately wants her homeland to be free of oppression. But it cannot support a war that risks killing many civilians, perhaps including members of their families. The bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in the southern town of Minab, which caused most of the 165 reported deaths of young girls, is a worrying sign of the heavy toll civilians pay in war, she said.
“The Iranian diaspora was concerned about the United States’ record of intervention in Iran, but some continue to advocate military intervention,” says Ms. Gowhari. “But now, with bombs hitting civilians and schoolchildren, people are realizing the cost of this advocacy. »
