France, U.K., others plan to recognize a Palestinian state. What does that change? : NPR

A flag with a watermelon, symbol of Palestinian identity, is agitated during the red line for the Gaza demonstration in Paris on July 8.

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Henrique Campos / AFP via Getty Images

France and the United Kingdom are among the last countries which are preparing to officially recognize a state of Palestine-a decision of two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council who would deepen their separation from Israel and the United States during the 22-month war in Gaza. Canada this week has also joined the choir of nations which recently pointed out to open up to the recognition of the Palestinian state.

The planned recognition, expected in September, could mark a turning point. While France seems ready to move unconditionally, Great Britain and Canada have linked their decision to the actions of Israel or the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank occupied by Israeli. The change reflects the global assembly of global indignation in the face of the humanitarian report in Gaza, including generalized famine relationships in the besieged territory.

More than 145 countries recognize a state of Palestine.

Mouin Rabbani, member of the non -resident senior of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs Research Group, said that the decision – although largely symbolic – has a diplomatic weight. “When you have states with the importance and importance of France and Great Britain which take this measure, this leaves the feeling of a rupture of the dam,” explains Rabbani. “We can expect others to follow.”

This decision is also used to “put a blow through the bow of Israel”, explains Michael Lynk, a former independent United Nations expert on human rights in the Palestinian territories. For nations who choose to recognize a state of Palestine, he reports to the world that they are “bored, upset [and] Available by the conduct of Israel from the war in Gaza. “”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in a statement that the recognition of a Palestinian state “rewards the monstrous terrorism of Hamas and punishes his victims”. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared this feeling in an article on X last week which described him as “reckless decision” which “only serves Hamas propaganda”. Managers of the Palestinian Authority praised the announcements by France and the United Kingdom, while the BBC reported that Hamas qualified France’s action as “positive”.

What have France, the United Kingdom and Canada said exactly?

Paris, London and Ottawa have long supported a solution to two states to resolve the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict by establishing a Palestinian state, which, according to the Palestinians, should include the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. The leaders of the three countries said they were intended to make an announcement at the United Nations General Assembly in September in New York. But they adopt slightly different approaches.

Last week, French president Emmanuel Macron, in a letter shared on X, assured the president of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas that France plans to recognize a Palestinian state. Macron called for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, “massive humanitarian aid to the inhabitants of Gaza”, ensuring “the demilitarization of Hamas” and rebuilding a Palestinian state which fully recognizes Israel.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer described a September calendar for Great Britain’s recognition of a Palestinian state, unless Israel accepts a cease-fire, interrupts the expansion of the Israeli colonies in the West Bank and engages in a two-state solution. His declaration also provides “the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the abolition of the management of Hamas de Gaza as key stages towards a solution negotiated with two states”.

Canada has some of the same conditions. At a press conference on Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that his government’s decision was aimed at preserving a two -state solution “as the only roadmap for a safe and prosperous future.” Carney also said that the Palestinian Authority, which has not held an elections since 2006, had to keep a vote in 2026 which excluded Hamas.

More than 60,000 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces during the war in Gaza, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. The war began with an attack led by Hamas in October 2023 which killed around 1,200 people in Israel, according to Israel.

What are the practical and diplomatic implications?

The members of the United Nations Security Council voted on a resolution calling for a ceasefire and without restrictions in Gaza, at the United Nations in New York on June 4. The recognition of a Palestinian state by the United Kingdom and France could have implications for the Security Council.

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If the United Kingdom and France recognize a Palestinian state, 4 of the 5 permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – France, the United Kingdom, Russia and China – will speak with one voice. “This means that the United States is the only country … which refuses to move from its kind of unconditional support for everything that Israel does,” according to Khaled Elgindy, a guest researcher at the Center for Contemporary Araby Studies of the University of Georgetown.

Diplomatically, this means that recognized countries could exchange full ambassadors with the Palestinian authority, explains Lynk, who is currently an associate professor at the Faculty of Law of Western University in London, Ontario. “”It would increase the status of [Canada’s] Representative office in Ramallah [in the West Bank] to a complete embassy with an ambassador instead of a representative, And Palestine would have an ambassador and a complete embassy in Ottawa. “”

Most countries that do not currently have official relations with the Palestinian authority have nevertheless maintained informal links through various diplomatic, political and humanitarian channels.

“States that recognize Palestine … would have obligations … to take measures to protest and take measures – real sanctions if necessary – against any state that interferes with Palestinian sovereignty,” explains Lynk.

With France and Great Britain, this could mean two additional votes against Israel to the United Nations Security Council, but as Rabbani notes, “France and Great Britain have not deployed their veto to defend Israel”. Instead, they allowed the United States to veto, he said. “So, I don’t think nothing changes the Security Council.”

Finally, there could be implications for the International Criminal Court (ICC), which issued mandates for the arrest of Netanyahu and the former Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant in November for “crimes against humanity and war crimes” committed since the start of the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu called the accusations of “scandalous” and the international court an “enemy of humanity”.

Yaël Ronen, principal researcher at the Minerva Center for Human Rights of Hebrew University, said that recognition “could have legal consequences … in the context of the jurisdiction of the CPI”.

However, France said that it would not stop Netanyahu and Gallant because it would be “incompatible with its obligations in terms of international law with regard to the immunities granted to the States which are not a party to the ICC” – in this case Israel.

Thus, the recognition of a Palestinian state “does not mean that these states would necessarily stop these politicians if they arrive on French or British soil,” said Ronen.

Rabbani adds: “We have seen this year that France has repeatedly allowed charged war criminals, Israeli war criminals who are fugitives from international justice because they are sought by the ICC, to use French airspace on the way to the United States.”

France, Great Britain and Canada have all declared that Hamas should be sidelined by a future Palestinian state, but it is not clear if possible.

Hamas, which controls Gaza and is separated from the Palestinian authority, maintains relations with certain countries of the Middle East and enjoys limited links with Russia and China. But the European Union and most Western countries, including the United States, Canada and Australia, said the Islamist organization a terrorist group.

Why sudden change now?

“There is a crisis. There is a feeling that something must be done to stop this. So you do everything possible. And if there is nothing else, that’s what you do,” said Ronen.

Public opinion also plays a role. In the United Kingdom, for example, 45% of British now say that their government should recognize a Palestinian state, while only 14% in disagreement, according to a Yougov survey led last week.

For countries that are moving towards the recognition of a state of Palestine, the actions of Israel have forced their hand, explains Rabbani. Former French foreign minister Hubert Védrine, speaking to The worldsaid Macron’s government had a duty to do something. “Given the appalling situation in Gaza and the lack of perspectives, he became dishonorable to do nothing,” said Védrine.

Rabbani also suspects that the countries in question hope to rekindle the possibility of a two -state solution, which he describes as “a framework which becomes more and more an illusion”.

“They were placed in a situation impossible by the Israeli government,” in the midst of increasing internal political pressure, he said.

In the end, simple recognition of the Palestinian state is a low cost option. This can appease a domestic audience requiring an action, while doing very little to change the situation on the ground, says Rabbani. And it is easier than imposing real sanctions on Israel, than the United Kingdom, France and Canada have not proposed.

“In this sense, there is a very great contradiction between words and action,” he says.