Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 5: James Wood among best bets for Saturday HR player props

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Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 5: James Wood among best bets for Saturday HR player props

Nationals outfielder James Wood has emerged as a star during the first half of the 2025 MLB season, batting .292 with 23 home runs and 67 RBIs heading into the Saturday MLB schedule. Wood tallied his first career five-hit game against Detroit on Thursday, homering for the first time this month. He is +350 to homer on Saturday in the MLB odds, which is one of the props that the SportsLine computer model is targeting. Also, check out free picks for Yankees vs. Mets and Tigers vs. Guardians on Saturday, along with MLB player prop bets.

You can also score $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with the latest FanDuel promo code, producing even more value for our Saturday MLB HR parlay. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 26.6 units on its MLB HR picks this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Saturday, July 5:

James Wood, Nationals (+375)

Wood was held hitless against Boston on Friday, snapping his six-game hitting streak. The slugger has rarely been held hitless in back-to-back games this season, and he sits in a tie for seventh in the MLB home run standings. Wood homered against Detroit on Thursday amid his five-hit outing, and Red Sox starting pitcher Walker Buehler has allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts. Buehler is allowing lefties to hit .329 against him this season, making this a favorable matchup for Wood.

“We set the line at +350 for Wood to hit a home run, and this is a strong matchup given both the batter and pitcher splits as well as the Home Run Index at a 10 out of 10,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. The latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses, making this the place to play this home run prop on Saturday.

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+420)

Marte has only played in 58 games this season, but he has already hit 19 home runs and driven in 40 runs. The 31-year-old homered in back-to-back games against San Francisco on Wednesday and Thursday after going back-to-back against the Marlins at the end of June. He has seven homers since June 20, putting him within one homer of his third straight 20-homer season. Marte has hit 15 of his home runs against right-handed pitchers this year.

“Michael Wacha has allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 7 starts. Marte is just 1-5 off of Wacha in his career, but that’s a small sample size which shouldn’t scare you off of this play,” Fetner said. “Left-handed batters only have three home runs against Wacha this season, but they are hitting .275 against him.” The latest bet365 bonus code gives you $150 in bonus bets on your first wager of at least $5.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (+480)

Yelich leads Milwaukee with 17 home runs this season, showing flashes of his prime. He hit a solo home run against the Mets on Wednesday, giving him four homers in a 14-game stretch. The 33-year-old has hit 16 of his homers against right-handed pitchers, and the data analyst team is not concerned about Marlins starting pitcher Cal Quantrill having better splits against left-handed batters.

“Yelich has been seeing the ball so well at the plate that it might not make as big of a difference as the oddsmakers think it does, and we did hit on Ketel Marte to homer off Quantrill last week in a similar position,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +375 for Yelich to hit a HR.” FanDuel is offering the best odds at +480, and you can play with a FanDuel promo code here.