GOP Headed for a Runoff in Texas Senate Primary – RedState

The Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ) predicted that Republicans would head to a runoff in the Texas Senate primary after no candidate surpassed the 50 percent plus one vote threshold needed to win the nomination. With more than 65 percent of the votes counted, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn sits at 43.2 percent, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton garnering 40.3 percent and Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38) in third with 12.9 percent.

Cornyn and Paxton will face off again on May 26.

Decision Desk HQ predicts that John Cornyn and Ken Paxton will advance to the runoff in the Republican primary for Texas’ U.S. Senate race.#DecisionMade: 10:20 p.m. ET

Follow the results live on Votes. pic.twitter.com/OAh8jiEwNX

– Decision Desk Headquarters (@DecisionDeskHQ) March 4, 2026

John Cornyn fought the fight of his political life to retain the US Senate seat he has held since 2002. Polls put him neck and neck with Paxton, with Hunt still coming in third. A recent University of Texas poll showed:

On the Republican side, the UT poll found that Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn were neck and neck, with neither candidate close to the 50 percent plus one vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Paxton led with 36% to Cornyn’s 34%. Houston’s U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was in third place, receiving 26 percent of the vote.

Earlier in the race, Paxton hit Cornyn with an ad lambasting the senator for his apparently close relationship with Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30), who is running in the Democratic Senate primary. Interestingly, a January Emerson College poll showed Cornyn had the best chance of defeating Crockett and his primary opponent, James Talarico, in the general election.

Heading into Tuesday’s primary, prediction markets were optimistic about Paxton’s chances of winning. Betting throughout the day, Paxton had about an 80 percent chance of defeating Cornyn and Hunt, and his odds of surpassing the 50 percent plus one vote threshold skyrocketed to nearly 30 percent.

Editor’s note: The 2026 midterm elections will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both houses of Congress.

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