Graham Platner Isn’t Just Surviving. He’s Leading.

It’s easy to see why Mills was pushed to enter the race. She’s reasonably popular, has a lot of name recognition, and has polled quite well in head-to-head races against Collins in the past. But his campaign did not start as many hoped. Mills announced his candidacy on October 14. Three days later, stories began to emerge about Platner’s history on Reddit, which included posts in which he said black people were bad tippers, called “all” cops “bastards” and claimed victims of sexual assault and rape should “take some responsibility for themselves.” On October 21, Platner revealed – perhaps ahead of other opposition research – that he had unknowingly obtained a “Totenkopf,” a Nazi symbol, tattooed on his chest decades earlier. (A few days later, Platner had the tattoo covered with a new tattoo.)

Establishment Democrats clearly hoped that Platner would withdraw from the race, leaving Mills as the only viable candidate. But Platner did not dodge the accusations; he apologized and addressed them head-on, both in the media and in several well-attended town hall meetings across the state. It seems to have worked: Platner, in most polls, shows a slight advantage over Mills and in some polls it is much higher.

One such survey, conducted by Z to A Research between November 14 and 18, found that both candidates had a one-point lead in a head-to-head race against Collins: 46 to 45 percent, with 7 percent unsure and 2 percent saying they did not intend to vote. The only difference is among the undecided: for Platner, 7 percent are unsure and 2 percent say they did not intend to vote; for Mills, these figures are 5 percent and 3 percent, respectively. This number is good news for Platner: one of the most important arguments Mills makes to voters is that she is the most “electable” candidate. There is little reason, either from this survey or several others, to suggest that there is a huge advantage.