Hamas reasserts control in Gaza as Iran war shifts focus, analysts say
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As the war with Iran dominates the region’s attention, Hamas is quietly reasserting its control inside Gaza, according to videos and photos circulating on social media. An Israeli analyst and Gaza political commentator say these developments raise new doubts about whether post-war plans for the enclave will be implemented any time soon.
Michael Milshtein, a senior analyst at Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center, said Hamas has used the past two and a half weeks not only to rehabilitate itself militarily, but also to project visible control over public life.
“They are really using it well to establish their power in the public sphere, not just for military rehabilitation,” Milshtein said, describing what he says are new recruits, police deployments and even parades in central Gaza. “Hamas is here to stay.”
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Hamas terrorists form a formation as Palestinians gather on a street to watch the handover of three Israeli hostages to a Red Cross team in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, February 8, 2025. (Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
He added that Gaza residents reported that Hamas was also rebuilding the governance apparatus. “Their police are everywhere,” he said. “They are also improving their tax system.” During Ramadan, he added, Hamas personnel monitored markets and mosques and “started building education systems.”
Mukaimer Abu Saada, a Gaza political analyst, agrees that the dynamic around post-war planning for Gaza has largely stalled since the escalation of the war in Iran.
“Everything related to Gaza has been suspended,” Abu Saada told Fox News Digital. Before the regional war broke out, he said, developments were “moving in the right direction,” including work around the Peace Council, the Gaza Technical Committee and discussions related to a possible international stabilization force.
“Yes, Hamas has taken advantage of the current situation,” Abu Saada said. “They don’t have the same pressure as before.”
Both analysts pointed to the same general dynamic: As attention turned to Iran, pressure on Hamas eased.
Abu Saada said that before the war there had been what he described as serious discussions about disarmament, the deployment of an international force and the political future of Gaza. But “the enthusiasm that preceded the war has died down,” he said, adding that Gaza has been relegated “to the background.”
“When I talk to Palestinians, they tell me: ‘Look, we’re already waiting for the day after the war,’” Milshtein said. He said some expected Netanyahu to become “very beholden to Trump because of the war in Iran, and that he will have to accept all his dictates regarding Gaza.”
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Terrorists in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza, celebrate the ceasefire on January 19, 2025. (TPS-IL)
At the center of this conversation is the prospect of an international stabilization force entering Gaza. But both men suggested that Hamas may not view such a force as a threat.
Abu Saada said Hamas had “welcomed the deployment” of such a force and appeared to view it as “a means of restraining the Israeli army” rather than intervening “to disarm” the group. He said the possibility of troops from countries like Indonesia could make such a deployment less threatening to Hamas, which could see it as a buffer against continued Israeli military operations.
Milshtein took this argument further, saying Hamas views the model less as a peacekeeping mission and more as a version of the Hezbollah-UNIFIL deal in Lebanon.
“Hamas says, ‘I have no problem, it will be like UNIFIL in Lebanon,'” Milshtein said. “Don’t even dream of starting after us, taking our weapons and entering the tunnels. You must also protect us from Israel.”
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Hezbollah terrorists take part in cross-border raids, as part of a large-scale military exercise, in Aaramta, on the border with Israel, on May 21, 2023, ahead of the anniversary of the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. (Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Abu Saada said the next phase depends heavily on how the war in Iran ends. If the Iranian regime survives and avoids collapse, he said, Hamas will take encouragement from this outcome.
“If Iran is not defeated, if the Iranian regime does not collapse, that will be a kind of moral support for Hamas,” he said.
