Here are 5 questions about what the Nov. 4 election results might mean : NPR

Garrett Morgan, of Huntington Beach, Calif., casts his statewide special election ballot into an official drop box in Huntington Beach on October 25.

Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

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Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Off-year elections are often a referendum on the president and his party. And this year, of course, that means President Trump and the Republicans. Trump is unpopular, particularly with independents, who will play key roles in swing districts in next year’s midterm elections.

The stories and margins emerging from the November 4 election will therefore be important – and will offer clues as to how the 2026 landscape begins to take shape.

Here are five questions to consider when thinking about Tuesday’s election:

1. How much of a drag is Trump?

Republicans lost 40 House seats in Trump’s first midterm in 2018. Just before that election, Trump’s approval rating, according to Gallup, was 40%.

Today, it’s an almost identical 41%.

Democrats have certainly tried a lot to use Trump in the 2025 election, often mentioning him in ads and trying to tie their Republican opponents to him. Republican candidates in these elections have largely avoided the president.

That’s partly because Tuesday’s most-watched elections are in states that lean left: gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, New York’s mayoral race and the fight over a ballot initiative in California.

But these elections tend to move in the direction of the party opposite that of the president. This is because they represent one of the first opportunities for voters aligned with the party ousted from power to express their frustration. This is why, for example, the gubernatorial race in Virginia has been won by the opposing party in 11 of the last 12 years, since 1977. (The exception was Democrat Terry McAuliffe during Obama’s presidency.)

It’s a necessary and ongoing caution that we shouldn’t make too much of the out-of-year election and what it means for the midterms, but Tuesday’s election will be the first major electoral sign of the political mood in the country — and what voters think of the president.

2. Will Democrats have a chance to counterbalance Republican redistricting efforts?

Perhaps the most important election on Tuesday will take place in California, when voters decide on Proposition 50.

The state is currently tasked with redrawing congressional districts by an independent commission. But voting in favor of Proposition 50 on Tuesday would temporarily waive that requirement and give Democrats the opportunity to try to offset the gains Trump is trying to make by redrawing red states like Texas.

It will also be a first test for California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, a likely 2028 presidential candidate. The “No” campaign has run ads urging people to end Newsom’s “power grab.” Newsom himself ran ads for the “Yes” campaign, and his opponents withdrew the millions they had promised to spend. A sign of where we’ll be heading on Tuesday?

3. Are Latinos moving away from Republicans?

Trump made inroads with Latinos in the 2024 presidential election.

In fact, he did better with Latinos than any Republican in history, according to exit polls.

But polls during Trump’s second term have shown signs that they are moving away from the president and the Republican Party. This happened amid Trump’s mass deportations that brought together far more than the hardened criminals Trump’s administration promised — and Trump’s lack of focus on lower prices, a key reason many switched sides to vote for Trump.

One place to watch as an indicator is New Jersey. Although Trump lost the state in 2024, he made significant improvements, particularly in counties with large Latino populations. For those playing at home, counties to watch here include Passaic (45% Latino, according to the census), Hudson (41%), Cumberland (36%) and Union (35%). Trump improved in all of them, from his national defeat in 2020 to his victory in 2024. He was the first Republican to win Passaic since 1992. He won it by about 3 points after losing it by 16 points four years earlier and by 22 points in 2016.

4. What lessons do Democrats learn from Tuesday?

Very different candidates are running in these elections. And they will likely serve as different examples over the next year of how to run — or not run — as a Democrat.

For New York City Mayor, for example, Zohran Mamdani captured the imagination of progressives with his emphasis on affordability. But he has also become a lightning rod on the right for his criticism of Israel and his past tweets calling for defunding the police.

He has since disavowed the idea of ​​defunding the police and says safety is a top priority. How he performs on Tuesday — and, more importantly, how he governs if he wins — could indicate whether Democrats are running nationally with his message and style, or whether they prefer the more reserved approach of their gubernatorial candidates in Virginia and New Jersey.

Abigail Spanberger, in Virginia, emphasizes “tradition” and “service,” and Mikie Sherrill, in New Jersey, emphasizes her military credentials. But the truth is that Democrats are in the wilderness and there is no ideal way to run.

First of all, candidates must be authentic, true to themselves. Few will be able to replicate Mamdani’s talent for using social media. And Mamdani can’t make it up to be a CIA officer (Spanberger) or a Navy helicopter pilot (Sherrill). What his campaign revealed most was that a focus on affordability with a clear message and a lack of condescension toward a younger generation was key to winning over young progressives.

Of course, New York isn’t everywhere and progressives don’t make up the majority of voters. This is something that Democrats, in particular, must balance, as the party traditionally has a broader range of views and identities.

5. What will the election mean for the shutdown?

The country is heading toward the longest government shutdown in American history. There’s no real end in sight, but Tuesday’s results could have an impact.

Health care is one of the main reasons for this closure. Democrats want to extend the subsidies before they expire at the end of the year so that tens of millions of people don’t see their contributions increase significantly.

Republicans refuse to negotiate until the government reopens, but Democrats doubt they can negotiate in good faith.

During the longest shutdown in history in 2019, polls clearly showed a majority blaming Trump for the shutdown. This put pressure on Trump to come to the table. But this time, even though Republicans are getting more blame, the situation is not as overwhelming as it was six years ago. And that puts both sides at an impasse.

Tuesday could shake things up, especially if there are definitive results one way or the other.