Here we go again: latest Trump tariff deadline looms amid inflation concerns | Trump tariffs

When Donald Trump unveiled his prices from the “Liberation Day” in the spring, only to pull the days later while Panic was tearing the world markets, his officials rushed to present the ascent as temporary.

Three months of frantic talks would allow the Trump administration to conclude dozens of trade agreements with countries around the world, they said. “We are going to manage,” said the Commercial Advisor for the White House, Peter Navarro, at Fox Business Network. “Eighty-two offers in 90 days are possible.”

The 90 -day break that Trump ordered on his stiff prices is almost increasing and 90 offers did not materialize. The United States is again about to launch a commercial assault against dozens of countries, with prices comprising 27% on Kazakhstan, 47% on Madagascar and 36% in Thailand.

“I do not think of the break,” said the president in a briefing with journalists earlier this week, when he asked him about the deadlines on Wednesday. “I’m going to write letters to many countries. And I think you are just starting to understand the process. ”

Business leaders, lobbyists, economists and investors may disagree. Even Trump administration officials sometimes had trouble following. Another edge of the cliff rose in sight, forcing them to return to a familiar question: will he really pass with that?

“I suspect it is serious,” said Marc Busch, professor of international commercial diplomacy at Georgetown University. “I think he will give the countries to negotiate in good faith. But from July 9, many news will be big rates that the United States has not seen since the 1930s are in force. ”

A handful of chords have emerged, cooling certain tensions. A partial agreement with the United Kingdom was the first to emerge, before a delicate truce with China and a pact with Vietnam. Officials would also be on an “framework” arrangement with the EU.

But these breakthroughs were much closer than conventional free trade agreements, which can take years to hammer. “These are not real commercial transactions. These are cessations of hostility,” said Busch. “These are purchasing agreements that may or may not appease Trump for a little while, thrown with ambitious things.”

Even if Trump extends the 90 -day break next week or concludes a myriad of transactions with a frantic pace, the current rate levels are still much higher than they were before returning to the office. The effects of this were always filled at the prices of American consumers.

“The American economy is certainly, I would say, which would break more positive than what would have been the story, or the wait, just after the Liberation Day,” said John Waldron, president of Goldman Sachs. “There is always an expectation that we will see more inflation during the summer.”

In the United States, medium-sized companies are confronted with approximately $ 82.3 billion in additional costs if the United States maintains a universal rate of 10% on all imports, as well as higher 55% rates on China and 25% on Mexico and Canada, according to JPMorganchase Institute.

These companies “often play a crucial role in regional economies and in the big supply chains,” said analysts of the Institute. “If they fight, it can cause training effects for other companies and their communities.”

If the prices of the “Liberation Day” are reimposed after the break, the costs would increase considerably. But even if they are not, the functions that Trump has already presented – and remain in force – leave companies with a heavy bill.

The administration game book, a pricing hike on a country spectacularly, then reduces them as a result of an agreement, is “as a retailer who increases prices of 100% one day and another day announces a sale of 30%,” said Busch. “It is quite extraordinary that we still debate,” he added. “American companies already eat and transmit parts of these prices to consumers.”

No senior federal civil servant was no longer expressed on this reality that Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve, who – despite the requests and public attacks of Trump – has aroused American interest rates while waiting to see how the commercial strategy of the administration is taking place.

“Someone has to pay for prices,” said Powell at a recent press conference, noting how costs filter a supply chain from the initial manufacturer to the customer buying a product. “Throughout this channel, people will try not to be those who take the cost.

“But in the end, the cost of the price must be paid and some will fall to the end of the consumer. We know it. This is what businesses say. This is what data say past evidence. So we know that it happens.”

Trump does not see this in this way, Insist on the fact that prices are taxes on other countries, rather than on American companies and consumers.

Whatever happens in the coming days, those who try to take a longer -term opinion believe that the main actions he has taken in recent months – as imposing 10% coverage rates – could remain in place for many years to come.

“We believe that it is likely that high and wide prices are there to stay there because, from all the so -called objectives of commercial policy, they prove the most success to increase income,” said Michael Pearce, American deputy economist at Oxford Economics. “Given the budgetary challenges awaiting us, these income will be difficult to replace for future administrations.”