Houston vs. Idaho prediction, odds, spread, time: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

Last year, the Houston Cougars ended their season in the national championship game. But before it has a chance to redeem itself for the loss, No. 2 Houston will face the No. 15 seed Idaho Vandals in the South Region in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night. Houston was the preseason No. 2 team in the country and enters March Madness 2026 ranked fifth. The Cougars (28-6) are coming off a 79-74 loss to Arizona in the Big 12 title game on Saturday. Meanwhile, Idaho (21-14) had a Cinderella run in the Big Sky Tournament, winning the conference tournament as a No. 7 seed despite going 9-9 in conference play. The Vandals are making their first March Madness appearance since 1990.

Tip-off from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The Cougars are 23.5-point favorites in the latest Houston vs. Idaho odds, with an over/under of 137.5, up 4 points after opening at 133.5. The Coogs are at -9091 on the money line, with the Vandals at +2550. Before making any Idaho vs. Houston picks, check out men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. He entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a torrid 11-1 streak on his highest-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 streak on the CBB’s highest-rated side picks. Anyone who followed his college basketball betting tips on sportsbooks and betting apps could have seen solid returns.

Today, the model has simulated Houston vs. Idaho 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can now head over to SportsLine to see the model’s choices. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Idaho vs. Houston:

Best Houston vs. Idaho Predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Houston vs. Idaho, SportsLine’s model is exceeding the total (137.5 points). Houston is known as an elite defensive program, and this year is no different, ranking second in the nation with 62.9 points per game allowed. However, Houston has its best offense in years, averaging 77.1 points per game this season. None of the Cougars’ last six teams have even reached 75 points per game.

Idaho hasn’t faced a team near Houston’s level all season, and the Cougars have scored at least 80 points in eight games, including two games with more than 100 points this season. Forced turnovers could lead to quick offense and easy points for Houston in a big mismatch. The Over has scored in two of Idaho’s last three games, with the Vandals scoring at least 77 points in all three contests. The model combines these teams for 148 points, since the Over hits in 74.4% of simulations.

How to make Idaho vs. Houston picks

The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits almost 60% of the time. You can only see this pick on SportsLine.

So who wins against Houston over Idaho, and which side of the spread reaches nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to be on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.