NBA Cup projections 2025: Group breakdowns, quarterfinal teams

Friday isn’t just Halloween. This also marks the opening day of the Emirates NBA Cup 2025 as the league’s season tournament enters its third iteration.

So far, the Cup’s single elimination bracket has given rounds to the favorites and treats to the underdogs. Although the eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder reached last year’s Finals in Las Vegas, neither of the first two winners (the Los Angeles Lakers in 2023 and the Milwaukee Bucks in 2024) have won more than a single game in the upcoming playoffs, showing how different the NBA Cup sprint is from the playoff marathon.

All this to say: Predicting the NBA Cup is a scary proposition. Nonetheless, we examine which teams are best positioned using projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), which takes into account team health and player abilities.

For all six NBA Cup groups, we used BPI to identify a favorite, as well as other contenders, with an eye on how the wild card spots in each conference might shake out. Let’s see who has the best chance of making it to Vegas in December.

Access a group:
East Group A (ATL, CLE, IND, TOR, WAS)
East Group B (BKN, BOS, DET, ENT, PHI)
Eastern Group C (CHA, CHI, NYK, MIA, MIL)
West Group A (MIN, OKC, PHX, SAC, UTAH)
West Group B (DAL, NO, MEM, LAC, LAL)
West Group C (DEN, GSW, HOU, POR, SAS)

Note: All ratings in this story are as of Wednesday morning.

East Group A

Group favorite: Cleveland Cavaliers (55%)
Competitor: Atlanta Falcons (24%)
Hideout: Toronto Raptors (11%), Indiana Pacers (7%), Washington Wizards (3%)

This top group is most likely to occupy the East wild card spot. That’s partly because teams have the advantage of facing the Wizards, who rank last in the BPI, as well as the Pacers, the 2023 runners-up, who have been hit hard by injuries.

Indiana played Wednesday without eight players due to injuries, including the top four guards on the team’s full roster (Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard). Some of them are expected to be back for the Pacers’ final three NBA Cup games, but they will be shorthanded for Friday’s opener against Atlanta.

The Cavaliers are dealing with their own injuries to guards Darius Garland and Max Strus, but are heading toward a 3-2 nevertheless starts. While the Hawks are off to a slow start, Cleveland is the clear favorite in this group. Atlanta hosting Toronto on Nov. 7 could be the key game to determine the wild-card competition.

play

Why Stephen A. changed his mind about the 76ers

Stephen A. Smith argues the 76ers could contend for an NBA title with Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and a healthy Joel Embiid.

East Group B

Group favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34%)
Competitors: Orlando Magic (25%), Detroit Pistons (20%)
Hideout: Boston Celtics (19%), Brooklyn Nets (2%)

The league attempts to balance the NBA Cup brackets by putting teams together based on their record from the previous season. That can be disruptive when teams’ fortunes change drastically, as they did in Boston after Jayson Tatum ruptured his right Achilles tendon.

Boston’s slowdown leaves Group B wide open. Comeback wins over Charlotte and Washington take some steam off the Sixers’ 4-0 start, but they have the benefit of hosting Orlando in a potentially crucial Cup matchup. The Magic improved their roster by adding Desmond Bane, but still have the usual difficulties creating half-court offense. Their 1.04 points per possession out of transition ranks 29th in the NBA, according to GeniusIQ.

There could be an opening here for Detroit, which hosts Orlando and Philadelphia. The Pistons started last year’s NBA Cup 3-0 before being eliminated by the Bucks in their group final, eliminating them from wild-card contention.

East Group C

Group favorite: New York Knicks (38%)
Competitors: Milwaukee Bucks (22%), Miami Heat (22%)
Hideout: Chicago Bulls (11%), Charlotte Hornets (7%)

This year’s NBA Cup will test the perfect record of Milwaukee assistant coach Darvin Ham, who won the inaugural trophy as Lakers head coach before joining the Bucks in time for last year’s triumph. The Bucks reached Las Vegas both years, but that was with Damian Lillard — now back with the Trail Blazers — averaging 27.3 tournament points last season.

With Milwaukee’s roster weakened, despite a head-to-head loss on Tuesday, the Knicks are comfortable favorites in the deepest group in the East. New York also has the advantage of hosting Milwaukee on the final night of group play. However, each game holds special significance for the Knicks because they are the East group least likely to produce a wild-card team, according to BPI.

Unlike Groups A and B, Group C doesn’t appear to have a problem, with the Hornets eliminating the bottom teams in those groups (the Wizards and Brooklyn Nets) in the first week of the season. Meanwhile, the other 2025 lottery team in this group (Chicago) is off to a 4-0 start this season and the surging Heat have the best point differential in the East..

West Group A

Group favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder (66%)
Competitor: Minnesota Timberwolves (17%)
Hideout: Sacramento Kings (8%), Utah Jazz (5%), Phoenix Suns (4%)

It would be a surprise if the defending NBA champions finished anywhere other than at the top of Group A. Not only do the Thunder have by far the best BPI score in the league, but that group looks atypically weak with Anthony Edwards likely to miss at least Minnesota’s opener due to a hamstring strain suffered during the opening weekend of the season.

The schedule works in the Timberwolves’ favor, with their game against Oklahoma City not scheduled until the day before Thanksgiving. Minnesota’s first two NBA Cup games will be at home, and Edwards could be back by the time they hit the road on Nov. 21, which would make reaching the final against the Thunder 3-0 a realistic goal.

The other three teams in this group have a combined win this season against teams next to each other: Utah’s shocking win over the LA Clippers.

West Group B

Group favorite: Los Angeles Clippers (30%)
Competitor: Los Angeles Lakers (25%), Memphis Grizzlies (24%)
Hideout: Dallas Mavericks (15%), New Orleans Pelicans (7%)

The road to a spot in the Group B quarterfinals runs through Los Angeles, although the Lakers’ injuries might have something to say about that. They will likely be without Luka Doncic and LeBron James for their group opener Friday in Memphis, although James could be back by the time they play on Nov. 14 and will have time to adjust before a showdown against the Clippers on Nov. 25. (BPI expects James to return between these two games.)

The Clippers entered the season with the best projection of any team in this group, and a troubling blowout on opening night in Salt Lake City looks like an outlier. Because their game against the Lakers is at Crypto.com Arena, the Clippers will only have to play one NBA Cup game outside of Los Angeles.

If the Grizzlies can beat the Lakers on Friday, they will likely be in contention to win the group until their finale against the Clippers in Los Angeles. The Mavericks and Pelicans have yet to show enough to suggest they are serious contenders.

West Group C

Group favorite: Denver Nuggets (27%)
Competitor: Houston Rockets (26%), Golden State Warriors (21%), San Antonio Spurs (19%)
Hideout: Portland Trail Blazers (7%)

We saved the best group for last. The loaded West Group C features two of the three West teams with an over/under total of at least 50 wins this season on ESPN BET (Denver and Houston, along with Oklahoma City are the others), plus a Warriors team that my model was high on and the undefeated Spurs.

This is the only group in which no team has at least a 30% chance of winning, and no one is that close. Last-place Portland has looked competitive early in the season, beating Golden State at home, which could make it difficult for the runner-up in this group to build up a strong enough point differential to win the wild card.

If both teams still make it, the Rockets’ visit to the Warriors on Thanksgiving Eve — Kevin Durant’s first trip to Chase Center with Houston — could be the marquee game of group play. Group C might not be decided until San Antonio visits the Nuggets two nights later in the final game.