Patriots vs. Broncos prediction, odds, spread: 2026 AFC Championship Game picks by proven model

The Denver Broncos will look to overcome the loss of quarterback Bo Nix (ankle) when they face the New England Patriots in the 2026 AFC Championship Game on Sunday. The winner will advance to Super Bowl LX. New England beat Houston 28-16 on Sunday, while Denver outlasted Buffalo 33-30 in overtime on Saturday. The Patriots (14-3), the AFC’s second seed, are 8-0 on the road this season. The conference’s top seed, the Broncos (14-3), are 9-1 at home, including the playoffs. Denver wideout Troy Franklin (hamstring) is listed as questionable, while New England will be without outside linebacker Harold Landry (knee). Denver running back JK Dobbins has attempted to return from a foot injury but has now been ruled out.

Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+ (register here). The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds, down 2 points since opening as 5.5-point favorites. The over/under in total points scored is 43 via DraftKings Sportsbooks. Before making any Broncos vs. Patriots picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, costs well over $7,000 for $100 players among the NFL’s top-rated picks since its inception. The model enters the AFC and NFC Championship Games with a 53-37 victory over top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anyone tracking their NFL betting picks on sportsbooks and betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on the Patriots versus the Broncos. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL Odds and trends for the Broncos vs. the Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover

MVP candidate Drake Maye helps power New England’s offense. In 17 regular season games, he completed 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns with eight interceptions and a rating of 113.5. In the playoffs, he threw four touchdowns with two interceptions. In the win over the Texans, he completed 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

His main target was Stefon Diggs. In 17 regular season games, he caught 85 passes for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. He had 17 explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 34. He also totaled 354 yards after the catch with 51 first-down conversions. He caught four passes for 40 yards and a score in the win over Houston. Find out which team to support on SportsLine.

Why the Broncos can cover

Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will replace the injured Nix. He will make his first extended appearance since Jan. 7, 2024, when he guided Denver against the Las Vegas Raiders. In a 27-14 loss, he completed 20 of 34 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown with an interception. During his career, he played in 20 games, completing 59.4% of his passes for 1,422 yards and eight touchdowns with eight interceptions.

Veteran receiver Courtland Sutton will be a key target. In 18 games, including the playoffs, he totaled 78 receptions for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns. Sutton had four catches for 53 yards in the win over Buffalo. He had two games with seven or more receptions, including seven for 113 yards (16.1 average) and a touchdown in a 34–26 victory over Green Bay on December 14. Find out which team to support on SportsLine.

How to make Patriots vs. Broncos picks

SportsLine’s model goes under the total, projecting 40 points combined. It also indicates that one side of the gap occurs in almost 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins the Broncos against the Patriots, and which side of the spread reaches nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Broncos spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has ended up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.