How late-season schedule changes impact the NFL playoff picture

ARLINGTON, Texas — The NFL regular season is winding down and the playoff picture is coming into focus, which means not only the teams, but also the league’s planning team, are hard at work.

The Chargers, who play at Dallas on Sunday, can secure a playoff spot with a win and help from a team or two. Coupled with a win against the Cowboys, the Chargers need Las Vegas to win at Houston (unlikely) or San Francisco to win at Indianapolis (more likely) so they can rest easy knowing they are at least in the playoffs for the second straight season under Jim Harbaugh.

Although the Rams are already qualified for the playoffs, they need to find their footing after a shocking loss at Seattle on Thursday that likely cost them a chance to become the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Here is an overview of the upcoming schedule for the end of this season and the start of the next, as well as the decisions to be made:

— Why did the league schedule Houston against the Chargers on Saturday in Week 17?

The game was always a candidate for that 1:30 p.m. slot on NFL Network, and Seattle, Carolina was also under consideration.

The league liked the Texans-Chargers on Saturday because these two clubs will likely play in January — perhaps against each other again — and if that game were moved to Sunday afternoon, it would face Fox’s national game, Philadelphia at Buffalo, a potential Super Bowl preview.

The NFL therefore wanted to do the Texans and the Chargers a solid and give them the national stage to themselves.

– Rams at Atlanta in Week 17 is not a fantastic Monday night game for Week 17, especially with the Falcons currently at 5-9. But with all the games spread out throughout Christmas week, there weren’t many interesting replacement options.

The league didn’t move the Texans-Chargers to this location for good reason. Because whoever plays in this “Monday Night Football” slot — that’s still Rams-Falcons — won’t be a candidate for a Saturday game on the final weekend.

So, by moving the Texans-Chargers to Saturday, these two teams are in play for the two Saturday spots in Week 18. The Chargers finish at Denver and the Texans host Indianapolis. Either or both of these games could end up on ESPN for those who finish Saturday’s games.

— The NFL had originally scheduled Cincinnati at Miami for this week’s Sunday night game, but last week decided to move New England to Baltimore in that time slot. This is notable because it’s the first flex of the season, which is an unusually low number. Typically there have been three or four bends so far.

Why just one? There are several reasons. First, the league planning team had a pretty clear crystal ball in May, a good idea for which teams would still be in the mix. Thanks to these people.

But the bar for bending games is also a little higher than before. The NFL is careful not to inconvenience 75,000 fans for a relatively small increase in viewership. Plus, with all the new windows and partners – Netflix, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Paramount+ – there are fewer games available. Even if the league wanted to be flexible, the options are fewer. The traditional Sunday inventory is much smaller than before.

– It’s worth noting that the league’s philosophy on moving games is that it’s moving away from a game that’s falling apart, it’s not moving into a better game because the network or streaming service doesn’t like the game it’s putting on.

Cincinnati-Miami was a flexible contender in October, when both teams were reeling. But then Joe Burrow came back for the Bengals, and the Dolphins started winning, and it got interesting for a while. But then Cincinnati was shut out last week by Baltimore, and Miami just benched their quarterback. Flex was back.

So, what to fold into? The thinking was that yes, the NFL could move Patriots-Ravens into that Sunday window for NBC, and at least it could leave Kansas City-Tennessee behind for CBS. Everyone thought the Chiefs would be fighting for their lives in the playoffs. This was not the case. Kansas City was eliminated last week and lost Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending knee injury. Chiefs-Titans is not as interesting as expected.

It could have been a bad Sunday for CBS, but the network ended up with Pittsburgh-Detroit for its national game. This could very easily have been the much less enticing Buffalo in Cleveland.

— We’re heading into the playoffs without Kansas City, without Dallas, maybe not Baltimore or Pittsburgh – one of them will be missing – and with the rise of Chicago, maybe not Green Bay or Detroit.

Many of these traditional presenting teams might be watching from their couch.

That means the NFL will have to make new decisions about priorities in the playoff schedule, perhaps looking with fresh eyes at clubs like Seattle, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Jacksonville and others. Which ones have the most national appeal?

And this will continue next season. How does the league distribute these big national windows? With Kansas City missing the playoffs and Mahomes recovering from a serious knee injury, are the Chiefs taking a back seat after a decade of division titles and deep playoff runs?

Have the Bears broken through? They are 10-4. At 12-2, Denver appears to be back and ready to continue this momentum. Heading into Thursday night’s game, the Rams were as hot as any team in the league, and the Chargers might finally get Justin Herbert that inaugural playoff victory.

The Steelers have won two in a row and could end up making the playoffs. If so, what will Aaron Rodgers do next season and how will the club move forward?

The NFL leaned heavily on Washington after a stellar season, giving them eight nationally televised games this season. This bet did not bear fruit; commanders are 4-10.

It’s the game behind the plays, and those decisions take shape.